Our Picks for Week 11

Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

  • $100 on Chargers -3 to win.
  • $100 on Lions +2.5 to win.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, PIT, MIN. Pays $292.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: BUF, LAC, HOU. Pays $305.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: DAL, KC, SF. Pays $338.
  • $10 on an 11-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, BUF, PIT, LAC, HOU, MIN, SF, BAL, DAL, KC, DET. Pays $842.

That’s $500 in bets to win about $1315, and a $10 longshot to win $842.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

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Thursday Night Footbal: NY Jets at the New England Patriots

Here is what Jeremy sent me RE the game tonight:

Patriots ML – got burned by division rivalries too many times on high spreads
For fun on Thursday take the over 43.5 (31-17 Pats)

What does The Model think and what kind of a bet can we figure out for tonight’s game?

Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.

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Week 10 Results

The model was 3 for 3 picking underdogs last week (if you count the Eagles game where it really was predicting a tossup, but leaning Eagles). How did we do on our bets? How did the model do overall? Read on. Our Bets It was looking bleak early Sunday, but a couple comeback wins by (more…)

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Our Picks for Week 10

Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

  • $100 3-way parlay to win: IND, CAR, CHI. Pays $271.
  • $100 3-way parlay to win: TB, BUF, BAL. Pays $293.
  • $100 3-way parlay to win: DET, HOU, SEA. Pays $391.
  • $100 on Lions to cover 8.5 points. Pays $190.
  • $100 on Texans +1.5 points to win. Pays $183. (Underdogs!)
  • $10 on overtime in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $140.
  • $5 on a tie in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $230.
  • $10 11-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, SEA, DET, and LAR. Pays $446. (All games both Jeremy and The Model like.)
  • $5 13-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, NYJ, SEA, DET, LAR, and LAC. Pays $757. (All the games The Model likes.)
  • $5 14-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, CLE, SEA, DET, PIT, and PHI. Pays $1955. (All the games Jeremy likes.)

This is $500 bet to win about $1328. We also bet on some long shots, $25 to win a potential $1433 or $2631 (depending if The Model or Jeremy has a perfect week). Long shots. The overtime/tie bet on Monday night’s game is fun, and not too out of line if you also are expecting a close game.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

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Thursday Night NFL: LA Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Week 10 Thursday night matchup brings a divisional clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are trying to prove they’re still in the AFC West mix, while the Raiders look lost after weeks of blowouts and a roster thinning at wide receiver.

At the time of writing, the Vegas spread is at 9.5. That’s a big number to cover, what do The Model and Jeremy think?

Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.

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Week 9 Results

Another scrappy week of NFL football. How did The Model do? How did our bets do? We won just 1 of our 5 bets last week. Our faith in Bo Nix and the Broncos to win as underdogs recouped about $286. The Lions, Colts, and Green Bay losses, while good for the Bears, was bad (more…)

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Our Picks for Week 9

I’m going to do something different this week and maybe going forward. I’m going to share our exact bets up front for all readers, above the fold, for free. In the current social environment, picks are a dime a dozen and available everywhere.

Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

  • $150 3-way parlay on DET, IND, and LAC to win moneyline. Pays ~$327
  • $150 3-way parlay on NE, GB, and DEN to win moneyline. Pays ~$473
  • $150 3-way parlay on CIN, LAR, and SEA to win moneyline. Pays ~$588
  • $150 on Denver +1.5 to win. Pays ~$286.
  • $150 on Cincinnati +2.5 to win. Pays ~$297.
  • $10 9-way moneyline bet on all of the above teams: DET, IND, LAC, NE, GB, DEN, CIN, LAR, and SEA. Pays ~$268. (I make bets like this because it’s fun to keep track of the games this way and we get a little extra juice if we have an incredible week. )

This is an interesting week. 3 3-way parlays. A couple have an underdog in them. A couple have huge favorites that probably don’t add much to the payout. I’m not sure this the most risk averse way to make bets on our research, but it feels good and is fun.

Jeremy was feeling moneyline for most of his picks. The only 2 straight up games we bet were the Broncos and Cincinnati, where both Jeremy and The Model were taking the underdogs.

In total, we are betting $750 to win ~$1971, and another $10 bet to win an additional $268.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

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Thursday Night NFL:Ravens at the Miami Dolphins

Lamar Jackson is back, and the Baltimore Ravens are traveling down to sunny Miami to play the Dolphins. What is going to happen tonight? Jeremy Says The Model Says What do we bet? My app doesn’t let me bet for “total TDs”, it’s passing or “anytime TDs” (rushing or receiving). So we’d have to make...

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Week 8 Results

I had a fun weekend trip in Oklahoma City, which delayed my posting here and also kept me from placing bets. What’s with that, Oklahoma! I know we’re all addicted to sports betting, it’s incentivizing fraud at the highest levels, and is ruining our kids in many ways, including keeping them from having sex and lowering the birthrate. On the other hand, it’s a lot of fun.

So how did we do last week?

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Week 8 Picks

I’ve been traveling and failed to get the picks out before the game started. I apologize to our loyal subscribers who were looking forward to that.

I’ll post The Model picks and summary of Jeremy’s notes from our stream here, but we won’t be making any specific bets this week.

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