Thursday Night Footbal: NY Jets at the New England Patriots
Here is what Jeremy sent me RE the game tonight:
Patriots ML – got burned by division rivalries too many times on high spreads
For fun on Thursday take the over 43.5 (31-17 Pats)
What does The Model think and what kind of a bet can we figure out for tonight’s game?
Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.
The Model’s Picks
The Model is inline with Jeremy. It is picking the Patriots to win by 2 points, but that is far behind the 12.5 point spread.
Last week’s Jets benefitted from both a Kickoff return and a punt return. Can their offense keep it close vs a New England defense that is 7th in points allowed per game, i.e. they keep opposing teams to under 19 points on average.
Jeremy suggests betting the over “for fun”, and I’m not sure if he is really expecting a shoot out game or just things those kinds of games are fun. Me too.
The Model is predicting closer, lower scoring game 22-19.
What’s our bet?
Let’s leave out the OU and just bet New England to win and Jets to cover with 12.5 points. We’ll be rooting a for a close game that NE wins. Sounds fun.
A $50 bet on this NE win/NYJ cover parlay pays $116 at Draft Kings now. This is just a little bit of a boost on the $97 a straight up $50 bet on Jets +12.5 pays. So if you want something safer, you can leave out the NE win. The model does have the Jets winning in 2 of 10 runs.
I’m going to take the safer route and bet $50 on Jets +12.5 to win $97.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!