Take insights from our NFL picks and analysis to sharpen your own betting strategy and find value every week.
Week 4, if you had bet the posted card: 4-0-1 on spreads, 2-1 on parlays, +9.01 units. Jacksonville +2.5 won outright. Chicago, Miami, and San Francisco all covered, and Seattle -7 pushed on a seven-point win. Two of the three moneyline parlays hit, at +388 and +233. The one that missed had all three legs (more…)
Week 3, if you had bet the posted card: 1-1 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -3.10 units. Chicago +4.5 covered by fifteen. Miami +10.5 did not, and all three moneyline parlays died. Season to date: -11.41 units. You didn’t bet it. Here is Week 4, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a (more…)
Week 2 results, if you had bet the posted card: 2-2 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it. Here is Week 3, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a raw edge of 4.0. Totals stay on the page and off the card. Three 1-unit moneyline parlays. The budget (more…)
The posted Week 2 card would have gone 2-2 on spreads and 0-3 on parlays. Spreads lost 1.11 units. The three 1-unit parlays lost 3. Combined, that is -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it, so the cash result is zero. If you had, the season would be -8.31 after Week 1’s -4.20. The two that (more…)
Week 1 results went 2-4 and lost 4.20 units. Here are the Week 2 bets and what The Model thinks. Starter QBR is one game old, so last week’s blowouts are yelling. Our Bets Spread bets this week are only the 4-point edges. Totals stay on the table below; we are not betting them. Parlays (more…)
The first week of the new Model is in the books. We went 2-4 on the posted Week 1 bets and lost 4.20 units. The Model itself went 8-8 picking winners and 7-9 against the spread. That is a bad week. Not a throw-the-computer-out week. The two 2-unit bets were both outright underdogs, Dolphins +3.5 (more…)
New season, new Model. Here are our bets, some notes on what changed, and The Model picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. One housekeeping note before the picks: everything on this site is free now. No membership required, no paywall, no teasers. If you were paying for Model Picks, thank you, and (more…)
Jeremy is betting on quarterbacks this week. He likes the Patriots and Rams to win moneyline. Here are The Model’s picks for the week and then every combo that could happen in the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl games are run with each team as the home team. So you can perhaps average the two (more…)
The Model did well last week, picking the winner in every game except the Bears game. It won on both of its underdog picks. It won just 50% vs the spread, but if it’s performance in the wildcard week are any indication, it might be good to go with The Model on some moneyline bets. (more…)
I’m not sure what we will bet. Probably a lot of crazy player props and long shots. But if you’re curious about what The Model is thinking, here are its picks and over/under bets for the week.