Take insights from our NFL picks and analysis to sharpen your own betting strategy and find value every week.
Week 8, if you had bet the posted card: no spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -3.0 units. Kansas City lost 28-24 in Denver and killed the first ticket. Arizona beat Dallas 33-30 and killed the second. Chicago walked into Seattle and won 34-17, which killed the third. The one spread we pulled off the card, Eagles (more…)
Week 7, if you had bet the posted card: 1-0 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -1.15 units. The 2-unit Giants bet at +10 did not need the points. New York won outright, 27-21 in Houston, so “ten is too many” turned out to be an understatement. The parlays gave it all back. Carolina killed the (more…)
Week 6, if you had bet the posted card: 1-3 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -6.05 units. Arizona +12.5 cashed the easy way, winning outright 18-16 in Los Angeles. Everything else lost. The 2-unit Giants bet went down 34-27 to New Orleans, Jacksonville lost 34-31 to Houston in London, and New England beat the Jets (more…)
Week 5, if you had bet the posted card: 2-0-1 on spreads, 1-2 on parlays, about -0.1 units. The Giants pushed on 27-27, New England and Buffalo both won their spreads, and Jacksonville -7.5 was the loss — the Jaguars beat Philadelphia 19-17 and never came close to covering. Two parlays died on a single (more…)
Week 4, if you had bet the posted card: 4-0-1 on spreads, 2-1 on parlays, +9.01 units. Jacksonville +2.5 won outright. Chicago, Miami, and San Francisco all covered, and Seattle -7 pushed on a seven-point win. Two of the three moneyline parlays hit, at +388 and +233. The one that missed had all three legs (more…)
Week 3, if you had bet the posted card: 1-1 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -3.10 units. Chicago +4.5 covered by fifteen. Miami +10.5 did not, and all three moneyline parlays died. Season to date: -11.41 units. You didn’t bet it. Here is Week 4, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a (more…)
Week 2 results, if you had bet the posted card: 2-2 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it. Here is Week 3, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a raw edge of 4.0. Totals stay on the page and off the card. Three 1-unit moneyline parlays. The budget (more…)
The posted Week 2 card would have gone 2-2 on spreads and 0-3 on parlays. Spreads lost 1.11 units. The three 1-unit parlays lost 3. Combined, that is -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it, so the cash result is zero. If you had, the season would be -8.31 after Week 1’s -4.20. The two that (more…)
Week 1 results went 2-4 and lost 4.20 units. Here are the Week 2 bets and what The Model thinks. Starter QBR is one game old, so last week’s blowouts are yelling. Our Bets Spread bets this week are only the 4-point edges. Totals stay on the table below; we are not betting them. Parlays (more…)
The first week of the new Model is in the books. We went 2-4 on the posted Week 1 bets and lost 4.20 units. The Model itself went 8-8 picking winners and 7-9 against the spread. That is a bad week. Not a throw-the-computer-out week. The two 2-unit bets were both outright underdogs, Dolphins +3.5 (more…)