Take insights from our NFL picks and analysis to sharpen your own betting strategy and find value every week.
Week 2 results, if you had bet the posted card: 2-2 on spreads, 0-3 on parlays, -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it. Here is Week 3, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a raw edge of 4.0. Totals stay on the page and off the card. Three 1-unit moneyline parlays. The budget (more…)
The posted Week 2 card would have gone 2-2 on spreads and 0-3 on parlays. Spreads lost 1.11 units. The three 1-unit parlays lost 3. Combined, that is -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it, so the cash result is zero. If you had, the season would be -8.31 after Week 1’s -4.20. The two that (more…)
Week 1 results went 2-4 and lost 4.20 units. Here are the Week 2 bets and what The Model thinks. Starter QBR is one game old, so last week’s blowouts are yelling. Our Bets Spread bets this week are only the 4-point edges. Totals stay on the table below; we are not betting them. Parlays (more…)
The first week of the new Model is in the books. We went 2-4 on the posted Week 1 bets and lost 4.20 units. The Model itself went 8-8 picking winners and 7-9 against the spread. That is a bad week. Not a throw-the-computer-out week. The two 2-unit bets were both outright underdogs, Dolphins +3.5 (more…)
New season, new Model. Here are our bets, some notes on what changed, and The Model picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. One housekeeping note before the picks: everything on this site is free now. No membership required, no paywall, no teasers. If you were paying for Model Picks, thank you, and (more…)
Jeremy is betting on quarterbacks this week. He likes the Patriots and Rams to win moneyline. Here are The Model’s picks for the week and then every combo that could happen in the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl games are run with each team as the home team. So you can perhaps average the two (more…)
The Model did well last week, picking the winner in every game except the Bears game. It won on both of its underdog picks. It won just 50% vs the spread, but if it’s performance in the wildcard week are any indication, it might be good to go with The Model on some moneyline bets. (more…)
I’m not sure what we will bet. Probably a lot of crazy player props and long shots. But if you’re curious about what The Model is thinking, here are its picks and over/under bets for the week.
Getting ready for the playoffs. Let’s see how we did last week. I mean to start off, we have no right betting the last week of the NFL. Things are so crazy. Teams are sitting players, trying to lose for draft spots, or playing vanilla football to avoid getting their team “on tape” before the (more…)
We missed week 17. Things were crazy with the holidays. If we do this more consistently, we will have to plan for that.
I’m posting this pretty late, but here are our bets, thoughts, and The Model picks for week 18 in the NFL.
That’s $475 bet to win about $1240.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!
Members can read Jeremy’s thoughts and The Model picks below here.