Week 8 Picks

I’ve been traveling and failed to get the picks out before the game started. I apologize to our loyal subscribers who were looking forward to that.

I’ll post The Model picks and summary of Jeremy’s notes from our stream here, but we won’t be making any specific bets this week.

Jeremy’s Analysis

Here is a summary of Jeremy’s analysis from last week’s stream.

Dolphins vs Falcons
Pick: Falcons to win; moneyline preferred over -7.5. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Miami in “fire-sale” mode, multiple starters rumored as trade targets; Tua may not start. Atlanta at home with crowd edge; Bijan set up for a big day vs shaky Dolphins run D.

Jets vs Bengals
Pick: Bengals to win and cover -6.5. Confidence: High.
Why: Jets are a dumpster fire with injuries; Flacco savvy, will get it out quick to Chase/Higgins and use Chase Brown; expects ~30 points from CIN and a multi-score margin.

Patriots vs Browns
Pick: Patriots to win; avoid -7.5, lean moneyline. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Vrabel-style NE defense (disguises, strong corners) shrinks windows for Dillon Gabriel (thin WR room). Judkins won’t repeat last week’s explosion vs this front; NE grinds it out at home.

Giants vs Eagles
Pick: Eagles to win; Giants +7.5 (Eagles not to cover). Confidence: Medium.
Why: Philly must respond at home after being embarrassed in NY, but Giants front is legit and keeps it tight; spread too rich given recent head-to-head.

Bills vs Panthers
Pick: Bills to win and cover -7.5. Confidence: High.
Why: Get-right spot for Josh Allen (multi-TD potential); Bryce Young doubtful—hard to keep pace if QB isn’t right.

Bears vs Ravens
Pick: Ravens to win; Bears +6.5 (Ravens not to cover). Confidence: Medium.
Why: Lamar returns (even <100% still energizes), but BAL defense has been horrendous; Bears typically keep games close.

49ers vs Texans
Pick: 49ers to win; take them plus the points. Confidence: Medium-High.
Why: Done underestimating SF depth; Texans look stale with only a couple uninspiring wins; SF coaching/DC “Salah” praise (Jeremy shorthand for elite defensive coordination).

Buccaneers vs Saints
Pick: Buccaneers to win; lay -4.5 OK, ML in parlays. Confidence: High.
Why: Saints are “the eights”—injuries and tanking/trade-shop vibes (top WRs and Kamara floated). Bucs bounce back despite injuries.

Cowboys vs Broncos
Pick: Cowboys to win; take +3.5. Confidence: Medium.
Why: DAL healthy O-line, Dak on time, CeeDee cooking; if Giants put 30 on DEN, DAL’s offense can top that. Needs 27+ to win; Jeremy leans they can.

Colts vs Titans
Pick: Colts to win; lean to cover -14 but recognize back-door risk. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Indy doesn’t take foot off the gas and destroys bad teams; already beat TEN by 21; stylistically keeps scoring late.

Packers vs Steelers
Pick: Steelers to win; take +3 at home. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Rodgers revenge vs GB narrative (QB TD props live); PIT defense rebound spot at home, Boswell factor in close games.

Commanders vs Chiefs
Pick: Chiefs to win and cover -12.5. Confidence: Medium-High.
Why: KC running up scores (high-30s/low-30s last 4), Mahomes MVP push, home field + refs edge; J. Daniels likely out, WRs banged up—sets up 34–17-type cover.

Model Picks

Here are The Model Picks for the third week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

Strong Alignment (Same Winner, Similar Lean)

• Vikings vs Chargers — Both: Vikings. Model by ~1.3; line LAC -3 → live dog angle matches Jeremy taking points / ML.
• Bills vs Panthers — Both: Bills, and comfortable margin. Model ~+12.9 vs -7.5; matches Jeremy’s “get-right, cover” read.
• Buccaneers vs Saints — Both: Buccaneers. Model has Bucs by ~9.6 despite being +4.5 dogs; aligns with Jeremy’s confidence (lay 4.5 OK / ML in parlays).
• Dolphins vs Falcons — Both: Falcons. Model ATL by ~5.4 vs -7.5; Jeremy prefers ML over spread—direction matches.
• Colts vs Titans — Both: Colts. Model ~+12.9 vs -14; Jeremy likes the blowout vibe but flags back-door—winner call aligns.

Alignment but Conditional / Nuanced

• Giants vs Eagles — Both: Eagles, but spread split. Model by ~9.4 (covers -7.5); Jeremy: win but don’t lay 7.5.
• Browns vs Patriots — Both: Patriots, but margin caution. Model by ~4.9 vs -7; Jeremy: ML, avoid ATS.
• Bears vs Ravens — Winner match (Ravens), spread split. Model by ~10.4 (covers -6.5); Jeremy: Ravens win, Bears +6.5 live.

Notable Disagreements

• Jets vs Bengals — Model: Jets by ~4.0; Jeremy: Bengals and cover -6.5 (CIN 30-ish vs Jets “dumpster fire”).
• 49ers vs Texans — Model: Texans by ~0.5; Jeremy: 49ers outright (done underestimating SF depth/coaching).
• Cowboys vs Broncos — Model: Broncos by ~4.6; Jeremy: Cowboys +3.5 / win (DAL offense rolling).
• Packers vs Steelers — Model: Packers by ~8.4; Jeremy: Steelers +3 at home / win (Boswell factor, revenge narrative).
• Commanders vs Chiefs — Model: Commanders by ~4.2; **Jeremy: Chiefs and cover -12.5 (KC piling points; WAS QB/WR injuries).