Our Picks for Week 11 – Underdogs.win

Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

$100 on Chargers -3 to win.
$100 on Lions +2.5 to win.
$100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, PIT, MIN. Pays $292.
$100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: BUF, LAC, HOU. Pays $305.
$100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: DAL, KC, SF. Pays $338.
$10 on an 11-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, BUF, PIT, LAC, HOU, MIN, SF, BAL, DAL, KC, DET. Pays $842.

That’s $500 in bets to win about $1315, and a $10 longshot to win $842.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Jeremy’s Analysis

Dolphins vs. Commanders

Pick: Dolphins -2.5
Why: Washington is collapsing, while Miami is showing real signs of life after beating quality opponents (Bills, Falcons). Better momentum, better offense.

Panthers vs. Falcons

Pick: Stay Away
Why: Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Falcons have swung from blowing out the Bills to getting shut out by Carolina. Panthers alternate between shocking wins and bad losses. Zero dependable read here.

Buccaneers vs. Bills

Pick: Bills -5.5
Why: Line feels oddly low given Tampa’s injury issues at the skill positions. Baker isn’t the same without a healthy supporting cast. Buffalo should bounce back strongly and cover at home.

Texans vs. Titans

Pick: Texans ML (lean) or Titans +6.5
Why: Titans are “dookie,” but divisional games rarely justify a big spread. CJ Stroud being out with a concussion complicates things — Houston to win, but Tennessee +6.5 becomes playable.

Bears vs. Vikings

Pick: Vikings ML
Why: Chicago’s wins have come against compromised teams (CIN, NO, NYG, WSH with an injured Daniels). Too many late-game heroics needed. Minnesota’s defense is stronger than those opponents; expect a close Vikings win at home.

Packers vs. Giants

Pick: Packers ML; Giants +7.5 in play
Why: Hard to justify Green Bay as a 7.5-point favorite with how they’ve played. Jameis Winston is chaotic enough to produce a surprise spike game. Possible upset candidate if you want to get spicy.

Bengals vs. Steelers

Pick: Steelers ML
Why: Pittsburgh can’t drop another game to Flacco’s Bengals. Aaron Rodgers (now in PIT) had his worst game as a pro last week and should rebound against a soft Cincinnati defense. Avoid the -5.5; they’re not reliable enough to lay that many.

Chargers vs. Jaguars

Pick: Chargers -2.5
Why: Despite no run game or OL, Herbert is playing out of his mind. LAC needs this to stay competitive with Denver and ahead of KC. Harbaugh should have them prepared despite the West-to-East 1:00 p.m. travel jinx.

Seahawks vs. Rams

Pick: Stay Away (lean Rams ML; Over 48.5 fun play)
Why: Could be the Game of the Week. Darnold and Stafford both hot. Turnovers will determine everything. If forced: Rams on the ML and consider the over. (Jason: Although the Seahawks are +7 on turnovers for the season and Rams are -4.)

49ers vs. Cardinals

Pick: 49ers -2.5
Why: Clear mismatch and Marvin Harrison Jr. is out. Arizona should probably be focusing on draft position anyway.

Ravens vs. Browns

Pick: Ravens ML
Why: Historically a slugfest. Cleveland’s defense has given Lamar Jackson trouble for years, but Baltimore’s revamped defense should overwhelm a Browns offense with essentially no passing threat. ML only due to divisional chaos.

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Pick: Chiefs ML
Why: Denver should win at home, but missing Surtain and referee dynamics likely tilt toward KC. Expect a penalty imbalance favoring the Chiefs. KC wins by <4 in a tight finish.

Lions vs. Eagles

Pick: Lions +2.5 (and likely outright)
Why: Philadelphia is in turmoil — offensive stagnation, poor decisions, emotional sideline moments. When AJ Brown cries, they force-feed him the next week, which Detroit will be ready for. Dan Campbell will attack aggressively. Lions win a close one (around 27–24).

Cowboys vs. Raiders (Monday)

Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Why: Dallas badly needs a reset game, and Las Vegas can’t score consistently. Their secondary won’t contain CeeDee or Pickens for a full game. Cowboys should finally capitalize on a favorable matchup.

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for this week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

Here are the results from the Over/Under runs for The Model.

Strong Alignment (Same Winner, Similar Lean)

Bears vs Vikings — Jeremy likes the Vikings on the moneyline and The Model has them by ~9 points; same direction and same logic about Chicago’s soft wins.
Bengals vs Steelers — Jeremy wants ML only while The Model has Pittsburgh by ~2; gritty game but aligned on the winner.
Buccaneers vs Bills — Clear agreement: Jeremy expects a bounce-back cover and The Model has Buffalo by nearly a touchdown.
Packers vs Giants — Jeremy only trusts the ML, while The Model loves them at +11.5; same winner, different confidence level.
49ers vs Cardinals — Straightforward for both; Jeremy sees it cleanly and The Model has SF by about +1.5.
Chiefs vs Broncos — Jeremy thinks KC squeaks out a tight one and The Model has them by ~4.4; aligned directionally.
Lions vs Eagles — Jeremy likes the Lions outright and The Model backs it with a +6.5 margin.
Cowboys vs Raiders — Jeremy expects a get-right cover and The Model has Dallas by ~3.8; both point the same way.

Alignment but Conditional / Nuanced

Ravens vs Browns — Jeremy takes ML only due to divisional chaos, while The Model has Baltimore by +8.5; same winner, different enthusiasm.
Texans vs Titans — Both lean Texans, but Jeremy hedges due to Stroud’s concussion while The Model has Houston by ~8; same direction with QB-related caution.
Chargers vs Jaguars — Jeremy likes LAC -2.5 and The Model has them by +8.3; same winner, different level of conviction.

Notable Disagreements

Commanders vs Dolphins — Jeremy is on Miami while The Model actually picks Washington by +1.5 with a notable predicted swing.
Panthers vs Falcons — Jeremy refuses to touch it, but The Model is firmly on Atlanta (-6.9); a confidence vs. caution mismatch.
Seahawks vs Rams — Jeremy leans Rams, The Model picks Seahawks; full directional split.

If you scrolled to the bottom for our picks, we posted them at the top of the post this week. Scroll back up.

Good luck, everyone!