Our Picks for Week 9 – Underdogs.win

I’m going to do something different this week and maybe going forward. I’m going to share our exact bets up front for all readers, above the fold, for free. In the current social environment, picks are a dime a dozen and available everywhere.

Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

$150 3-way parlay on DET, IND, and LAC to win moneyline. Pays ~$327
$150 3-way parlay on NE, GB, and DEN to win moneyline. Pays ~$473
$150 3-way parlay on CIN, LAR, and SEA to win moneyline. Pays ~$588
$150 on Denver +1.5 to win. Pays ~$286.
$150 on Cincinnati +2.5 to win. Pays ~$297.
$10 9-way moneyline bet on all of the above teams: DET, IND, LAC, NE, GB, DEN, CIN, LAR, and SEA. Pays ~$268. (I make bets like this because it’s fun to keep track of the games this way and we get a little extra juice if we have an incredible week. )

This is an interesting week. 3 3-way parlays. A couple have an underdog in them. A couple have huge favorites that probably don’t add much to the payout. I’m not sure this the most risk averse way to make bets on our research, but it feels good and is fun.

Jeremy was feeling moneyline for most of his picks. The only 2 straight up games we bet were the Broncos and Cincinnati, where both Jeremy and The Model were taking the underdogs.

In total, we are betting $750 to win ~$1971, and another $10 bet to win an additional $268.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Jeremy’s Analysis

Bears vs. Bengals

Pick: Bengals +2.5 (upset pick)
Why: Chicago depends entirely on Caleb Williams’ efficiency, which remains inconsistent. Cincinnati is averaging over 33 points per game in Flacco’s starts and looks sharp at home. If they win the turnover battle, the Bengals take this outright.

Vikings vs. Lions

Pick: Lions -9.5 (ML in favorite parlay)
Why: Detroit’s offense is clicking perfectly at home and the dome amplifies their rhythm. Minnesota can’t keep up, averaging under 20 points per game. Justin Jefferson’s return helps, but he’ll face rust and a fierce Lions pass rush.

Panthers vs. Packers

Pick: Packers ML (part of favorites parlay)
Why: Expect another beatdown for Carolina. Bryce Young’s return from injury meets cold weather and a confident defense. Josh Jacobs looks to reassert himself as a top back — a strong duel with Taylor ahead.

Chargers vs. Titans

Pick: Chargers -9.5 (ML in favorites parlay)
Why: L.A. is putting up 30+ per game after retooling the offense. They’re #4 in total offense and #7 in defense — one of only four teams ranked top 10 in both. Expect them to cruise against a weaker Tennessee squad.

Falcons vs. Patriots

Pick: Patriots -5.5 (maybe ML)
Why: Atlanta’s offense looks cold and confused, especially at QB. The Foxborough weather won’t help. Drake Maye continues his MVP campaign with another 3-touchdown performance.

49ers vs. Giants

Pick: Stay Away (lean 49ers ML)
Why: Giants showed surprising grit vs. Philly even after injuries, while San Francisco’s offense looked awful last week. The Giants’ defensive front could give Purdy serious trouble if the Niners can’t establish rhythm.

Colts vs. Steelers

Pick: Colts -3.5 (ML safer)
Why: The Colts’ passing attack and quick schemes should overwhelm a Pittsburgh defense that’s underperforming. Expect Taylor to post 120+ total yards and two scores. Danny Dimes likely throws for 250+ against a weak secondary.

Broncos vs. Texans

Pick: Broncos ML (upset pick)
Why: Denver’s on a five-game win streak, scoring 27+ per game behind a strong run game (#3 in NFL). Bo Nix has become a steady leader, while Houston still lacks a defining win. Broncos are the more complete team right now.

Jaguars vs. Raiders

Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (ML safer)
Why: Raiders are falling apart — outscored 71–6 in their last two games vs. winning teams. Jacksonville should rebound after tough losses to Seattle and the Rams. Expect a clean, businesslike Jags win.

Saints vs. Rams

Pick: Rams ML (fade huge spread)
Why: Fourteen and a half points is too high. Sean McVay could rest veterans if the Rams jump ahead. Puka Nacua and Atwell may sit, so expect heavy Kyren Williams usage. Garbage-time TD risk for Shough complicates the spread.

Chiefs vs. Bills

Pick: Bills +2.5 (possible ML)
Why: Buffalo won’t allow another home embarrassment like the Patriots game. Josh Allen needs a statement game to reassert himself. KC missing Pacheco means more short crossing routes — and watch the refs, as always.

Seahawks vs. Commanders

Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (ML safer)
Why: No one can stop Jaxon Smith-Njigba right now, and Washington’s receiving corps is banged up. Both teams run well, so expect a fast, low-possession game — maybe a 24–17 SEA win.

Cardinals vs. Cowboys

Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (ML alternate)
Why: Arizona can’t defend both Gallup and CeeDee Lamb all night. Expect big games on the ground from Dallas and another frustrating loss for the Cardinals — maybe a shootout over 53.5 total points.

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for this week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

This week, I’m also uploading The Model’s picks for the specific scores for each team, the total, and whether to bet the over/under. This report is historically very sporadic with regards to making good bets. We even used to consistently bet AGAINST it to make money. However, it might be useful in understanding a bit more how The Model is “thinking” about the matchup. The results in the OU table usually matchup with the results in the “margin of victory” table, but not always.

Strong Alignment (Same Winner, Similar Lean)

Panthers vs Packers — Both: Packers. Model by ~11; line GB -13.5 → total agreement on blowout.
Chargers vs Titans — Both: Chargers. Model by ~9; line LAC -8.5 → Model and Jeremy both confident on dominant win.
Vikings vs Lions — Both: Lions. Model by ~4.8; line DET -9.5 → same side, Model a bit milder but aligned.
Colts vs Steelers — Both: Colts. Model by ~6; line IND -3.5 → clear consensus, Colts’ offense too much.
Seahawks vs Commanders — Both: Seahawks. Model by ~4.2; line SEA -2.5 → tight alignment, steady SEA edge.
Cardinals vs Cowboys — Both: Cowboys. Model by ~5.5 (high conf 7.9); line DAL -2.5 → strong shared view DAL handles it.

Alignment but Conditional / Nuanced

Bears vs Bengals — Both: Bengals. Model by ~1.7; line CHI -2.5 → live dog angle matches Jeremy’s Bengals +2.5 call.
Falcons vs Patriots — Both: Patriots. Model by ~1.6; line NE -5.5 → same side, Jeremy much stronger on Maye’s dominance.
49ers vs Giants — Both: 49ers. Model by ~6.8; line SF -2.5 → Model confident, Jeremy cautious “stay away.”
Broncos vs Texans — Both: Broncos. Model by ~2.3; line HOU -1.5 → live dog agreement on upset ML shot.
Saints vs Rams — Both Rams but tone differs. Model by ~9.8; line NO -14 → Model sees blowout, Jeremy fades ATS risk.
Chiefs vs Bills — Split but soft. Model: KC by ~2.6 (low conf); Jeremy leans Buffalo ML → opposite sides, but Model’s weak conviction tempers it.

Notable Disagreements

Jaguars vs Raiders — Split: Model Raiders by ~0.5; line JAX -2.5 → real disagreement, Jeremy backing Jags bounce-back vs Model’s mild Vegas edge.
Ravens vs Dolphins — Model: Ravens by ~6.6 (low conf); Jeremy skipped → absence makes it unaligned but Model bullish on BAL.

If you scrolled to the bottom for our picks, we posted them at the top of the post this week. Scroll back up.

Good luck, everyone!