Category: Premium Model Picks

We missed week 17. Things were crazy with the holidays. If we do this more consistently, we will have to plan for that.

I’m posting this pretty late, but here are our bets, thoughts, and The Model picks for week 18 in the NFL.

Our Bets

• $100 on Chargers +13.5. Pays $186.
• $100 on Falcons to win and cover -3.5. Pays $192.
• $100 on Buccaneers to win and cover -3. Pays $198.
• $100 on 2 teams to win moneyline: DAL, PHL. Pays $224.
• $50 on 6 teams to win moneyline: HOU, LAR, TB, DAL, ATL, PHI. Pays $403.
• And $25 on Ravens to win moneyline. Pays $37.50.

That’s $475 bet to win about $1240.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Members can read Jeremy’s thoughts and The Model picks below here.

Sorry for the delay on this post.

Our Bets

• $100 on Lions +6 to win.
• $50 on Colts +14 to win.
• $50 on 5-way parlay to win: HOU, CHI, KC, BUF, PHI

Betting $200 to win a potential ~$500.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

This is an odd week. Jeremy and I are traveling, actually meeting up in Chicago to watch the Steelers vs Bears game.

But we’re out of sorts, both from the travel and from the shellacking we had last week. My instinct is to go bigger on surer bets (didn’t really work Thursday, although I think we were forcing that one). Jeremy’s instinct is to “fuck it”, go smaller but crazier. “Bet on the Bears so I don’t feel bad if the Steelers lose.” What am I supposed to do?

I don’t think we’re going to make bets before the games today. A couple things we’ve thought about:

• $x on 4-way parlay to win: Seattle, New England, Baltimore, and Detroit. These are basically our locks for the week.
• $x on New England to cover 6.5 points.

Jeremy and The Model are most out of sync on the Eagles vs Cowboys game. (Shout out to Demetri Martin. Why does Cowboys sound better than Cowmen?)

I thought about making over/under bets. The Model has done well on them this year. Jeremy is wary of the over/under bets. The one we considered was over on the Seattle vs Houston game.

I don’t have notes from Jeremy this week, but The Model’s picks and Over/Under results are below for paid subscribers.

Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

• $100 3-way parlay to win: IND, CAR, CHI. Pays $271.
• $100 3-way parlay to win: TB, BUF, BAL. Pays $293.
• $100 3-way parlay to win: DET, HOU, SEA. Pays $391.
• $100 on Lions to cover 8.5 points. Pays $190.
• $100 on Texans +1.5 points to win. Pays $183. (Underdogs!)
• $10 on overtime in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $140.
• $5 on a tie in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $230.
• $10 11-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, SEA, DET, and LAR. Pays $446. (All games both Jeremy and The Model like.)
• $5 13-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, NYJ, SEA, DET, LAR, and LAC. Pays $757. (All the games The Model likes.)
• $5 14-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, CLE, SEA, DET, PIT, and PHI. Pays $1955. (All the games Jeremy likes.)

This is $500 bet to win about $1328. We also bet on some long shots, $25 to win a potential $1433 or $2631 (depending if The Model or Jeremy has a perfect week). Long shots. The overtime/tie bet on Monday night’s game is fun, and not too out of line if you also are expecting a close game.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

I’m going to do something different this week and maybe going forward. I’m going to share our exact bets up front for all readers, above the fold, for free. In the current social environment, picks are a dime a dozen and available everywhere.

Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

• $150 3-way parlay on DET, IND, and LAC to win moneyline. Pays ~$327
• $150 3-way parlay on NE, GB, and DEN to win moneyline. Pays ~$473
• $150 3-way parlay on CIN, LAR, and SEA to win moneyline. Pays ~$588
• $150 on Denver +1.5 to win. Pays ~$286.
• $150 on Cincinnati +2.5 to win. Pays ~$297.
• $10 9-way moneyline bet on all of the above teams: DET, IND, LAC, NE, GB, DEN, CIN, LAR, and SEA. Pays ~$268. (I make bets like this because it’s fun to keep track of the games this way and we get a little extra juice if we have an incredible week. )

This is an interesting week. 3 3-way parlays. A couple have an underdog in them. A couple have huge favorites that probably don’t add much to the payout. I’m not sure this the most risk averse way to make bets on our research, but it feels good and is fun.

Jeremy was feeling moneyline for most of his picks. The only 2 straight up games we bet were the Broncos and Cincinnati, where both Jeremy and The Model were taking the underdogs.

In total, we are betting $750 to win ~$1971, and another $10 bet to win an additional $268.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

I’ve been traveling and failed to get the picks out before the game started. I apologize to our loyal subscribers who were looking forward to that.

I’ll post The Model picks and summary of Jeremy’s notes from our stream here, but we won’t be making any specific bets this week.

I’m posting this late to give Jeremy time to process injury reports.

Thursday’s game was exciting, but the Steelers lost, busting the 3-way “primetime” parlay I setup for Thursday’s bet.

Let’s see if we can make some money on the other games today and tomorrow.

Side note: I’m changing this post to “Our Picks” since these posts try to synthesize Jeremy’s notes and The Model’s results into one set of bets. I’ll still share Jeremy’s thoughts separately and The Model’s results separately, so you can make your own decisions.

Also: Subscribe over at YouTube to catch our live streams. We’re keeping them to around 30 minutes, and they are the fastest way for you to get access to our thoughts and picks… for free. Subscribe here for just $5 to get the full details.