Model Picks for Week 5
Another week of NFL betting action. Only 14 games this week, since a few teams have bye weeks, but that is more than enough for us to pick up some lost ground from last week.
Jeremy’s Analysis
If you’d like to watch our full live stream from Thursday, here it is. We cover all of the games this week.
Here is an AI-generated summary of Jeremy’s notes for each game this week.
49ers vs. Rams
Rams to win. 49ers are crippled by injuries — Purdy, three starting receivers, and their tight end are all out. Shanahan is keeping them competitive, but the offense can’t hang with the Rams’ pace. Divisional game means points are tricky, but Jeremy expects the Rams to win outright and possibly cover the -8.5 spread if LA’s offense stays hot.
(See our full Thursday Analysis here.)
Vikings vs. Browns
Browns with the points (+3.5). Jeremy likes Cleveland’s defense against an immobile Carson Wentz. The Vikings have been on the road for weeks, and fatigue plus travel could show. Browns could steal a win outright if they generate pressure with Myles Garrett.
Raiders vs. Colts
Colts to win and cover. Indy’s offense is clicking — averaging 30+ points a game — with Jonathan Taylor back to form and rookie TE Ty Warren emerging as a weapon. Raiders’ defense ranks near the bottom, so Jeremy expects a comfortable Colts victory.
Giants vs. Saints
Giants to win as underdogs. Jeremy believes in Jaxson Dart after last week’s breakout. Saints’ offensive line is decimated (five starters on IR), and their offense relies on garbage-time yardage. Giants’ front seven should dominate, making them a smart money line play.
Cowboys vs. Jets
Cowboys to win and cover (-2.5). Dallas brings the league’s #1 offense, and Jeremy sees them overpowering a Jets defense that’s collapsed since early last year. Expect Dak to roll, even if Sauce Gardner limits one receiver — Cowboys have too many weapons.
Broncos vs. Eagles
Eagles to win, but Jeremy is wary of the spread (-3.5). Philly keeps winning close games while Denver’s defense keeps every game tight. Best angle is Eagles money line or Over 43.5, expecting a 27–23-type finish.
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Dolphins to win and cover. Tyreek Hill is out, but that may balance the offense — expect heavier use of the run game and tight ends. Panthers remain one of the weakest teams in the league. Miami’s front seven should control the game.
Texans vs. Ravens
Texans to win outright. Jeremy calls Baltimore’s defense “one of the worst in the league” and notes Lamar Jackson’s injury risk. With Houston’s top-five defense and CJ Stroud ready for a statement game, this is a money line upset pick.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Buccaneers to win with points (+3.5). Jeremy doubts Seattle’s legitimacy — calls them “frauds.” Tampa’s defense is fast, and rookie WR Emeka Egbuka could shine with Evans sidelined. Buccaneers cover, possibly win.
Lions vs. Bengals
Lions to win and cover. Bengals’ offense is lost without Burrow; Chase is frustrated and production has cratered. Jeremy expects Detroit to score 40+ again. Easy call: Lions roll.
Commanders vs. Chargers
Chargers to win and cover (-2.5). Jeremy doesn’t trust Washington’s run game or Jaden Daniels’ health. LA is due for a rebound and should outmatch the Commanders on both sides.
Patriots vs. Bills
Bills to win and cover (-7.5). Jeremy calls it a “Hulk smash” game — Buffalo taking years of frustration out on New England. Patriots’ offense can’t keep up, and the Bills’ defense is healthier.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Chiefs to win and cover (-3.5). Prime-time Mahomes is almost automatic. Jeremy expects Andy Reid to out-coach Doug Pederson, and the Chiefs’ offense to stay creative with Worthy’s speed.
Cardinals vs. Titans
Cardinals to win, but barely cover. Jeremy thinks Arizona has weapons but keeps “laying eggs” offensively. He sees this as their last winnable game for a while. Stay-away for betting, but expects a close Arizona win.
The Model’s Picks
Here are The Model Picks for the third week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)
The Model disagrees with Jeremy on some of the early games, so we are going to avoid those.
Here are some games where The Model and Jeremy line up:
Colts vs. Raiders
Model projects Indianapolis by almost 8 points — one of its strongest calls — and Jeremy agrees fully. Both expect the Colts to win and cover.
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Model favors Miami by 3.1 with low confidence. Jeremy’s aligned here too, predicting Dolphins to win and cover with a more balanced offense minus Tyreek Hill.
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks
Model picks Tampa Bay by 2.6, matching Jeremy’s skepticism of Seattle. Both sides agree this is a live underdog play.
Lions vs. Bengals
Model projects Detroit by 14, aligning perfectly with Jeremy. Both expect a blowout.
Bills vs. Patriots
Model favors Buffalo by 8.8, which lines up cleanly with Jeremy’s confidence in the Bills to win and cover.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars
Model has Kansas City by about 10 points, well above the market line of -3.5. Jeremy’s with it — expects a prime-time Mahomes win by four or more.
Our Bets
Last week nearly half of the games in the NFL were won by the underdog. Besides a cheeky bet on Tampa Bay, we’re going to make a few bets on the chalk. Let’s see how it goes.
- $100 on Tampa Bay +3.5 points.
- $100 on the Colts to win and cover 7 points.
- $100 on the Dolphins to win and cover 1.5 points.
- $100 on the Lions to win and cover 10.5 points.
- $100 on the Bills to win and cover 8.5 points.
- $100 on the Chiefs to win and cover 3.5 points.
- $75 on TB, DET, and ARI to win.
- $75 on IND, PHI, and MIA to win.
- $75 on BUF, KC, DET, and ARI to win.
- $25 on IND, MIA, ARI, TB, DET, BUF, and KC to win.
- $20 for a 3-way parlay for the Eagles to win, Broncos to cover with 4.5 points, over 43.5 points.
All together that is $870 bet to win a possible $2273 or so.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!