Jason

Week 13 Picks

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Happy Thanksgiving. There are a bunch of games today. And tomorrow the Bears will face off and crush the Eagles. It’s an odd week for the NFL schedule-wise, so I’m just going to post our notes on all the games and make this week’s picks available for free. But first, our bets…

Our Bets

  • $100 Bills -3.5 to cover vs Steelers. Pays $190.
  • $50 3-way parlay to win moneyline: DEN, ATL, SF. Pays $166.
  • $50 4-way parlay to win moneyline: PHI, JAX, LAC, LAR. Pays $118.
  • $25 7-way parlay to win moneyline: BAL, MIA, ATL, TB, SF, DEN, NE. Pays $315.
  • $10 15-way parlay to win moneyline: DET, BAL, PHI, SF, LA, JAX, TB, MIA, ATL, SEA, LAC, BUF, DEN, NE. Pays $846.

That’s $225 in bets to win $789 and a $10 long shot to win $846.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

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Jason

Week 12 Results

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The Bears won! That’s all that matters.

We didn’t make any bets while traveling, but we did suggest a couple. So I’ll share how those bets would have done and how The Model did.

Our Bets

It was a little scary there for a bit, especially in the Detroit game, but Seattle, Baltimore, New England, and Detroit all won. So that $100 bet would have earned $170.

We also thought New England would have covered 6.5 points, and they only won by 6. When I told Jeremy about this, he said he wouldn’t have made that bet. He wanted to bet on the Bears to cover. Would have been a push. But this is why I don’t make bets unless I have written or recorded notes from Jeremy. Our memories don’t always line up.

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Jason

Week 12 Picks

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This is an odd week. Jeremy and I are traveling, actually meeting up in Chicago to watch the Steelers vs Bears game.

But we’re out of sorts, both from the travel and from the shellacking we had last week. My instinct is to go bigger on surer bets (didn’t really work Thursday, although I think we were forcing that one). Jeremy’s instinct is to “fuck it”, go smaller but crazier. “Bet on the Bears so I don’t feel bad if the Steelers lose.” What am I supposed to do?

I don’t think we’re going to make bets before the games today. A couple things we’ve thought about:

  • $x on 4-way parlay to win: Seattle, New England, Baltimore, and Detroit. These are basically our locks for the week.
  • $x on New England to cover 6.5 points.

Jeremy and The Model are most out of sync on the Eagles vs Cowboys game. (Shout out to Demetri Martin. Why does Cowboys sound better than Cowmen?)

I thought about making over/under bets. The Model has done well on them this year. Jeremy is wary of the over/under bets. The one we considered was over on the Seattle vs Houston game.

I don’t have notes from Jeremy this week, but The Model’s picks and Over/Under results are below for paid subscribers.

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Jason

Thursday Night Football: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

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Here is what Jermey sent me for the game tonight:

I like the Bills tonight. Looks like they are hitting on some good cylinders right now.

I don’t think Houston has an explosive enough offense to take advantage of an average defense for the Bill.

I expect Bosa and those boys for the Bills to get home.

I like the Bills by a touchdown tonight.

As far as for the over, I could see that because I see the Bills winning like 27 to 20 or even 30 to 17.

What does The Model think and what kind of bet can we figure out for tonight’s game?

Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.

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Jason

Week 11 Results

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After going 3 for 3 with its underdog picks last week, The Model goes 0 for 3 this week. Eep. The Model performed terribly, contributing to our worst week yet with bets. Our Bets We didn’t win a single bet last weekend, or Thursday. So we were 0 for 5 on our bets, losing $500 (more…)

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Jason

Our Picks for Week 11

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Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

  • $100 on Chargers -3 to win.
  • $100 on Lions +2.5 to win.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, PIT, MIN. Pays $292.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: BUF, LAC, HOU. Pays $305.
  • $100 on a 3-way parlay to win moneyline: DAL, KC, SF. Pays $338.
  • $10 on an 11-way parlay to win moneyline: GB, BUF, PIT, LAC, HOU, MIN, SF, BAL, DAL, KC, DET. Pays $842.

That’s $500 in bets to win about $1315, and a $10 longshot to win $842.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

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Jason

Thursday Night Footbal: NY Jets at the New England Patriots

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Here is what Jeremy sent me RE the game tonight:

Patriots ML – got burned by division rivalries too many times on high spreads
For fun on Thursday take the over 43.5 (31-17 Pats)

What does The Model think and what kind of a bet can we figure out for tonight’s game?

Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.

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Jason

Week 10 Results

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The model was 3 for 3 picking underdogs last week (if you count the Eagles game where it really was predicting a tossup, but leaning Eagles). How did we do on our bets? How did the model do overall? Read on. Our Bets It was looking bleak early Sunday, but a couple comeback wins by (more…)

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Jason

Our Picks for Week 10

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Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

  • $100 3-way parlay to win: IND, CAR, CHI. Pays $271.
  • $100 3-way parlay to win: TB, BUF, BAL. Pays $293.
  • $100 3-way parlay to win: DET, HOU, SEA. Pays $391.
  • $100 on Lions to cover 8.5 points. Pays $190.
  • $100 on Texans +1.5 points to win. Pays $183. (Underdogs!)
  • $10 on overtime in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $140.
  • $5 on a tie in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $230.
  • $10 11-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, SEA, DET, and LAR. Pays $446. (All games both Jeremy and The Model like.)
  • $5 13-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, NYJ, SEA, DET, LAR, and LAC. Pays $757. (All the games The Model likes.)
  • $5 14-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, CLE, SEA, DET, PIT, and PHI. Pays $1955. (All the games Jeremy likes.)

This is $500 bet to win about $1328. We also bet on some long shots, $25 to win a potential $1433 or $2631 (depending if The Model or Jeremy has a perfect week). Long shots. The overtime/tie bet on Monday night’s game is fun, and not too out of line if you also are expecting a close game.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Sign up for a membership to read below for our full analysis and why we made these bets.

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Jason

Thursday Night NFL: LA Raiders at Denver Broncos

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The Week 10 Thursday night matchup brings a divisional clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are trying to prove they’re still in the AFC West mix, while the Raiders look lost after weeks of blowouts and a roster thinning at wide receiver.

At the time of writing, the Vegas spread is at 9.5. That’s a big number to cover, what do The Model and Jeremy think?

Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.

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