Week 1 Results
The first week of the new Model is in the books. We went 2-4 on the posted Week 1 bets and lost 4.20 units. The Model itself went 8-8 picking winners and 7-9 against the spread.
That is a bad week. Not a throw-the-computer-out week. The two 2-unit bets were both outright underdogs, Dolphins +3.5 and Buccaneers +3.5, and both lost. Colts +3.5 lost. Bears at Panthers Under 47.5 lost 59-37. The two that cashed were the ones that looked the most boring on Tuesday: Cardinals +10 and Jaguars -8.5.
Our Bets
| Bet | Result | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2u Dolphins +3.5 (-115) | Loss | LV 27, MIA 13 | -2.00u |
| 2u Buccaneers +3.5 (-105) | Loss | CIN 33, TB 27 | -2.00u |
| 1u Cardinals +10 (-115) | Win | ARI 26, LAC 14 | +0.87u |
| 1u Colts +3.5 (-115) | Loss | BAL 41, IND 23 | -1.00u |
| 1u Jaguars -8.5 (-108) | Win | JAX 34, CLE 10 | +0.93u |
| 1u Under 47.5 CHI at CAR (-110) | Loss | 59-37, 96 total | -1.00u |
| Week 1 | 2-4 | -4.20u |
Arizona winning outright as a 10-point dog is why you bet the number instead of the side. Jacksonville covering -8.5 by 24 is why you sometimes just take the favorite The Model is pounding. Miami getting wrecked in Las Vegas is why Week 1 underdogs are still Week 1 underdogs.
The Model
- Straight up: 8-8
- Against the spread: 7-9
- Over/under: 5-11
- Strong edges (3+ points): 2-3 ATS
- Play + strong flat-unit P&L: -2.80u
- Prediction game: 57.68 vs market 56.92 (+0.76)
The yellow cells, the outright upset calls, went 0-3: Dolphins, Buccaneers, Colts. Houston was a fourth slight underdog and lost too. Jacksonville was the only favorite The Model liked more than Vegas, and it was the easiest cover of the week.
The ugly ones: The Model had the Rams by 5.2, and San Francisco won 27-7. It had Dallas, and the Giants won 28-20. It had the Bears-Panthers total at 43.4 against 47.5, and they scored 96.
Margin error was 12.4 points for The Model and 11.5 for the market. The market was better, which is what the backtest said would happen.
Into Week 2
One week is noise. The QBR numbers feeding Week 2 are one game old, so a 59-point explosion and a 31-10 home loss will scream louder than they should. We are still running the same rules. We are not pretending last Sunday taught us the truth about the NFL.
Week 2 picks are drafted and ready to post.
These are our personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.