Week 1 Model Picks

New season, new Model. Here are our bets, some notes on what changed, and The Model picks for Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season.

One housekeeping note before the picks: everything on this site is free now. No membership required, no paywall, no teasers. If you were paying for Model Picks, thank you, and enjoy the free version.

Our Bets

We are sizing in units this year instead of dollars. Eight units total for Week 1.

• 2 units on Dolphins +3.5 (-115). The Model has Miami winning outright by 2.4. That is a 5.9-point disagreement with the line, the biggest of the week.
• 2 units on Buccaneers +3.5 (-105). The Model has Tampa Bay by 1.0, another outright underdog call.
• 2 units on Cardinals +10 (-115). The Model likes the Chargers to win, but only by 5.8. Ten is a lot of points.
• 1 unit on Jaguars -8.5 (-108). The Model has Jacksonville by 12.2. This is the one game where The Model and Vegas agree on the side and The Model is more confident.
• 1 unit on Under 47.5 in Bears at Panthers (-110). The Model total is 43.4.

What Changed With The Model

The old Model was a neural network living inside a Google Sheet, fed by hand every week. It has been rebuilt from scratch. The new version pulls team stats, EPA, and each starting quarterback’s QBR automatically, trains on every game from 2013 through last season, and runs four different models (ridge regression, LightGBM, XGBoost, and a small neural net) whose margin-of-victory predictions get averaged into the number we call The Model.

We also backtested it honestly, season by season, only ever using data available before kickoff. The short version: it predicts margins about as well as you can from box scores, it is not as sharp as the closing line, and it picked spread winners at roughly 51 to 53 percent when it disagreed with Vegas by two or more points. That is not a money printer. It is one more input for sharp bettors to consider. This is what the math nerds think will happen.

The Model Picks

The table looks a little different this year. Games are in kickoff order. Instead of twelve runs of one model you get one column per model, then the combined Model MOV (home score minus away score). Green marks the team The Model picks to win straight up. Yellow marks an outright underdog pick. The Edge column replaces the old Pts Confidence and shows how far The Model is from the DraftKings spread, along with the side it says covers. Win % is The Model’s straight-up win probability and ML is the DraftKings moneyline for that pick.

Five games have an edge over four points, and in three of them The Model is calling an outright upset: Dolphins at Raiders, Buccaneers at Bengals, and Colts over Ravens. Jacksonville is the only favorite it likes more than Vegas does.

Over/Under Picks

The totals come from separate models that predict each team’s score and the game total. Diff is The Model total minus the DraftKings total. Fair warning: in the backtest the totals model was about 50/50 against the closing number, so treat these as the weaker half of the page.

Remember, the best way to use this is as one input into your own thinking. The Model does not know who is hurt, who is holding out, or who is starting a quarterback with 138 career pass attempts. Do your own research. Use your judgment.

These are our personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone.