Model Picks Week 5 Results
Another week of upsets in the NFL. In the past 5 or so years I’ve been betting on NFL games and following closely, I don’t think there has ever been a single week where 1/2 the underdogs won, let alone 2 weeks in a row. What is up?
So how did WE do last week? Let’s see.
Jeremy’s Thoughts
Jeremy sent me a text Tuesday morning with his thoughts about the games this weekend.
We took a big hit this week. I’ll take the blame on 3 of them. Arizona & Buffalo were disgusting.
We almost nailed it on PHL, they just couldn’t get the winning TD.
Cleveland blew it at the end, and the 3.5 was .5 short.
Chargers might be average. They got too much hype too early. The AFC West will be a dog fight. Div winner might only be 10-7/9-8.
They put a article on ESPN “how to blow a game 101: The Arizona Cardinals”. That just makes me feel great picking them.Kyler Murray is overrated. He’s not a good quarterback. They need to get rid of him after this year.
How did The Model do?
Good news: We did better than Vegas odds.
Bad news: That’s not that good. The Model broke even.
Again, I can’t stress how wild it is for half of the games in the NFL to be won by the underdog. What a time to be blogging on a site called Underdogs.win.
The model picked the underdog in 5 games last week, winning 3 of the 5… maybe 3/4 if you throw out the Ravens game, where the model had no way to adjust to Lamar Jackson sitting out.
It ended the week picking the winner 50% of the time, and winning vs the spread just 50% of the time. The Draft Kings line picked the winner just 43% of the time.
How did we do on our bets?
After so many underdogs winning in Week 5, we were kind of expecting a return to form for Week 6. Instead we got more underdogs winning and good teams barely losing close games.
We made $870 in bets (members can see them here). We won just 3 of our bets for $566. So we ended up losing $304 or about 3 units. Rough.
We’re now down about 3-4 units on the season. Let’s hope we make up some ground in Week 6.