Thursday Night Game Week 4: Seattle at Arizona

Every Thursday we will post our analysis, The Model’s picks, and our bets (if any) on the Thursday night game. This is meant to be a little bit of a taste of our full analysis and picks for the week.

This week the Seattle Seahawks travel to Arizona to face off against the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have been plucky, but losing Conner and Zay Jones turns “balanced offense” into “Kyler and prayers.” Seattle just dropped 44 last week! If that rhythm continues, the Cards’ defense might need oxygen masks before halftime.

Let’s see what Jeremy and The Model have to say.

Analysis, Model, and Picks

Jeremy says the Seahawks are the stronger, more disciplined team right now. They can run the ball and are well-coached. Meanwhile, Arizona’s offense is sputtering. Marvin Harrison Jr. can’t get on the same page with Kyler Murray, and the Cardinals can’t finish games.

James Conner’s season-ending injury swung momentum for both the Cardinals and Jason’s Fantasy Football team. The Seahawks even became road favorites after that news.

Jeremy expects the Seahawks to cover the small 1.5 point spread.

The Model on the other hand shows this game as a mixed bag. It is picking the Cardinals to win by .34 points, but looking under the hood tells an interesting story. The model actually has the Seahawks winning in 7 of the 12 runs. The average goes to the Cardinals because of one outlier game in the “crazy run”, where The Model has the Cardinals winning by 9. Every other run shows the game within 1 point. If I remove that outlier game, The Model has the Seahawks winning by .5 points.

Normally, I would avoid this game but (1) I like having a bet for the Thursday game and (2) if we remember that The Model can’t really process injuries… it’s telling that The Model predicts a close game, even while basically assuming Connor and Zay Jones are still in the game.

So we’ve made a $100 bet on the Seahawks to win and cover the 1.5 point spread.

This is a bit of a dangerous bet. If it weren’t Thursday, I would look for better bets (and we have some good ones for Sunday and Monday this week).

What I’ve found running this model for a few years is that it seems like the betting market usually over estimates the impact of an injury. A running back’s performance has a lot to do with the play calling, offensive line, and how well everyone else on the field is playing (here is a good video breakdown of that by the way). Backups often come in with a chip on their shoulder and lots of motivation to impress the team. It can go both ways, but the betting market tends to expect the worse here. This all can lead to a situation where the team with the injury ends up doing better than expected.

This is all just my personal impression of things. It would be awesome if someone did the research. When a line moves due to injuries, how often does the team with the injury do better than expected? Hmm.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!