Thursday Night Game Week 2: Washington vs Green Bay
Every Thursday we will post our analysis, The Model’s picks, and our bets (if any) on the Thursday night game. This is meant to be a little bit of a taste of our full analysis and picks for the week.
This week the Washington Commanders travel to Green Bay to face off against the Packers. Both of these teams won last week. The Commanders are being given 3.5 points, but is that the right line for this matchup?
See what Jeremy and The Model have to say.
Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.
Analysis, Model, and Picks
Jeremy favors Green Bay on the money line due to their strong performance against the Lions last week, but advises against betting the spread. Jeremy noted that the over under was set at 48.5. At the same time, both teams had good defensive showings last week, which could mean a lower scoring (and close) game.
The Model on the other hand is predicting Washington to win by two points. The Model seems to like the Commanders more than the general public, picking them to cover last week. In simulations of the coming season, The Model has the Commanders winning 14 games (vs the 9.5 consensus before the season started). The Model also has Green Bay winning 13 games (vs the 9.5 consensus before the season started).
We considered skipping this game because it might be close, and because The Model and Jeremy disagreed on the winner. However, I ended up betting $100 on Washington to win with the 3 point spread.
We didn’t make this bet this time, but a fun bet in games like this, where you expect a close one, is to do a 2 pick parlay on the favorite to win and the underdog to cover with the points. In this case, a $10 bet like that will pay about $65. That’s a nice 6.5-to-1 return.
If you add in the under (so 3 pick parlay: GB to win, WAS to cover, Under 48.5), you can get $120 for a $10 bet. Obviously a long shot, but could be fun to root for if this turns into a relatively boring defensive showdown.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!
Comments (1)
Gotta love football – all that makes sense and I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington wins 40-34 😂 just to make me look bad haha