Week 6 Model Picks

Week 5, if you had bet the posted card: 2-0-1 on spreads, 1-2 on parlays, about -0.1 units. The Giants pushed on 27-27, New England and Buffalo both won their spreads, and Jacksonville -7.5 was the loss — the Jaguars beat Philadelphia 19-17 and never came close to covering. Two parlays died on a single leg each; the Giants push in the first one collapsed it to a Patriots-Lions two-teamer that cashed at a reduced price. Season to date: about -2.5 units. Here is Week 6, on the same rules. A spread has to clear a raw edge of 4.0. Totals stay on the page and off the card. Three 1-unit moneyline parlays. The budget is eight units. This week spends eight.

Our Bets

Spreads (5 units)

• 2 units on Giants +1.5 (-120). The Model has New York by 2.9 against New Orleans -1.5. That is a 4.4-point edge and an outright side split at home. The Saints defense is banged up: Kaden Elliss (calf), Anfernee Jennings (knee), Nathan Shepherd, and Christen Miller have all missed practice this week, Jeremiah Wright is in concussion protocol, and Alvin Kamara is questionable. Tyler Shough is playing through a hand injury. New York is mostly whole, with Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, Andrew Thomas, and Isaiah Likely all cleared in recent reports. The Model sees the Giants’ point differential (-1.2) sitting well above the Saints’ (-5.7) and likes the home side getting points.
• 1 unit on Cardinals +12.5 (-105). The Model has the Rams by 6.8, not 12.5. That is a 5.7-point edge, the biggest on the board. The line has been climbing since Monday night — it opened around Rams -10.5 and has been seen as high as -13.5. Marvin Harrison Jr. is reportedly out for Arizona. None of that moves The Model off 6.8, and the bet is “12.5 is too many,” not a Cardinals endorsement. The counterweight: Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson is suspended for this game after the post-Monday-night incident, so Los Angeles is not at full strength either.
• 1 unit on Patriots -7.5 (-105). The Model has New England by 11.8, the most confident pick of the week at 82 percent. Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas, and the model number sits near where this line was in the summer. The catch is laying 7.5 the week after a blowout with TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) out and left tackle Will Campbell doubtful. This is a model-and-market agreement bet, not a fade.
• 1 unit on Jaguars -3.0 (+100). The Model has Jacksonville by 7.2 in the London game, 9:30 AM Eastern. The market likes Jacksonville too, so this is “the model is more confident than the market,” not a side split. David Montgomery is doubtful for Houston with a groin injury, and the Jaguars may be without left tackle Anton Harrison, who is having a knee procedure.

Parlays (1 unit each)

• Buccaneers ML (+114) / Ravens ML (-238) / Bills ML (-270). Pays +316.
• Giants ML (-105) / Bears ML (-162) / Colts ML (-340). Pays +309.
• Jaguars ML (-148) / Seahawks ML (-148) / Patriots ML (-345). Pays +262.

One flag on the parlays. The Model has Drew Lock starting for Seattle — again. Sam Darnold is the starter, and Lock’s 84.7 number in our file is inflating The Model’s Seattle number (more below). The sharp money is on Seattle anyway, so the leg stays. Kansas City at -500, the Rams at -850, and San Francisco at -440 are too short to be parlay legs.

No Thursday spread. Seattle at Denver is Seahawks -2.5 and The Model calls it Seattle by 2.5 — a zero edge. The wrong quarterback is most of why The Model is even there: Lock’s good Weeks 1 and 2 are still in his number. Denver’s secondary is missing Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga on a short week and the public is heavily on Seattle. No edge, no bet. Tampa Bay +2.5 at a 3.9 edge stays off the card — the same rule that kept the 3.99 off last week — and Carolina +1.5 at 2.8 never got close.

The Model

Same ensemble: Ridge, LightGBM, XGBoost, and a small neural net, refit on games through Week 5, using team stats, EPA, and starter QBR. Week 5 was its worst week against the number: 9-6 straight up but 6-9 against the spread. Through five weeks it is 45-34 straight up and 38-40-1 against the spread. It is still behind the market on margin error, 10.2 to 9.9.

The table is the full 14-game card: per-model margin, pick, DraftKings spread, raw edge, straight-up win probability, and moneyline. Four teams are on bye — Miami, Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Detroit.

Over/Under Picks

Totals went 7-8 in Week 5 and are 31-48 on the season. We are showing the numbers and not betting them. The biggest total edge is Carolina at Philadelphia Over 40.5. The Model says 46.0. Philadelphia may get Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith back from hamstring injuries, which is the direction the Over needs. Still not a bet.

Where we disagree with Vegas

• ARI at LA: LA -12.5; model MOV +6.8 Rams. On the card. The line has moved from about 10.5 toward 13.5 since Monday night, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is reportedly out. The bet is “12.5 is too many.” See above.
• NO at NYG: NO -1.5; model MOV +2.9 Giants. On the card for 2 units. The Saints are missing four defensive starters from practice this week and Kamara is questionable. See above.
• NYJ at NE: NE -7.5; model MOV +11.8. On the card. The money agrees.
• HOU at JAX: JAX -3.0; model MOV +7.2 Jaguars. On the card. The market is on the same side; The Model just wants four more points. Montgomery is doubtful for Houston.
• PIT at TB: PIT -2.5; model MOV +1.4 Bucs. Off the card at 3.9, and it is the week’s near miss. The Model has Tampa Bay’s quarterback situation at 56.9 in the file, above Aaron Rodgers’ 45.1.
• CAR at PHI: PHI -1.5; model MOV +1.3 Panthers. Off the card at 2.8. Carolina is off a bye, and The Model has Bryce Young at 71.3 against Jalen Hurts’ 54.8.

Remember, the best way to use this is as one input into your own thinking. The Model does not know who is holding out, and it only knows the quarterback nflverse listed. Justin Herbert’s row is still sitting at 28.1 in the file — if that is an injury split and not the real Herbert, the Chargers number moves.

These are our personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone.