Week 2 Results
The posted Week 2 card would have gone 2-2 on spreads and 0-3 on parlays. Spreads lost 1.11 units. The three 1-unit parlays lost 3. Combined, that is -4.11 units. You didn’t bet it, so the cash result is zero. If you had, the season would be -8.31 after Week 1’s -4.20.
The two that cashed were the quieter numbers. The two that lost were the ones the post spent the most words on.
Our Bets
Hypothetical. These are the bets on the published post, settled at the posted prices. Not the earlier draft that still had Atlanta, Chicago -4.5, and the Seahawks total.
| Bet | Result | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2u Jaguars +2.5 (-102) | Loss | DEN 20, JAX 13 | -2.00u |
| 1u Giants +7 (-105) | Loss | LA 28, NYG 6 | -1.00u |
| 1u Browns +8.5 (-112) | Win | CLE 23, TB 19 | +0.89u |
| 1u Colts +6.5 (+100) | Win | KC 33, IND 30 | +1.00u |
| Spreads | 2-2 | -1.11u | |
| 1u JAX / BUF / LAC ML (+329) | Loss | JAX lost, LAC lost, BUF won | -1.00u |
| 1u HOU / NE / PHI ML (+217) | Loss | HOU lost, NE won, PHI won | -1.00u |
| 1u SEA / CHI / BAL ML (+172) | Loss | SEA won, CHI lost, BAL lost | -1.00u |
| Parlays | 0-3 | -3.00u | |
| Week 2, if bet | 2-5 | -4.11u |
Cleveland won in Tampa. The “Tampa is better, just not by 8.5” bet won because Tampa was not better. Indianapolis lost by 3 at Kansas City and still covered +6.5. That is the argument for betting the number.
Jacksonville +2.5 was the 2-unit bet, a 9.4-point edge built on Trevor Lawrence’s Week 1 QBR of 93. Denver won 20-13. The one-game QBR warning was the right warning, and we bet through it anyway. The Giants number was worse. “Seven is a lot of points” was not a lot of points. The Rams won 28-6.
Every parlay had a loser. Houston was the expensive one: a home favorite on the ticket, and Cincinnati won 20-6. Chicago lost 9-3, which also would have lost the Bears -4.5 spread we took off the card. Baltimore lost 24-17 to New Orleans. The Chargers lost 26-14 to the Raiders.
The Model
- Straight up: 9-7
- Against the spread: 7-9
- Over/under: 4-12
- Edges of 3+ points: 2-4 ATS
- Margin error: Model 12.8, market 11.8
- Prediction game: 29.70 vs market 32.52 (-2.82)
The market was better again. Two weeks in, margin error is 12.6 for The Model and 11.6 for the market. The prediction game is now behind for the season, 87.38 to 89.44.
Both yellow cells lost. Jacksonville we bet. Atlanta we did not. The Falcons edge was 3.9, just under the 4-point line, so it stayed off the card. Carolina won 34-3. Leaving it off was the best decision of the week. Totals stayed off too. Vikings at Bears finished 12. Seahawks at Cardinals, the Over 41.5 the totals model liked by 5.5, finished 38.
Into Week 3
Same rules as the post you would have bet, not the wider sheet. A spread has to clear a raw edge of 4.0. Totals stay on the page and off the card. Three 1-unit moneyline parlays. Week 3 picks are up. Green Bay is on one of the parlays, and that game is tonight.
These are our personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.