Week 14 Results
Here are the results from week 14. We didn’t make any bets since I was traveling, but you can see how the model performed.
The model picked the winner 57% of the time, which matches how the Vegas lines did. The Model picked 2 underdogs and won one, lost the other.
Against the spread, the model had a terrible week, winning just 36% of bets. Towards the end of the year, you have to be careful. There are games you need to ignore The Model, like the Washington games, where the starting QB is out and the team is encouraged to tank.
There are lots of upsets, including a Texans team that is winning games with their defense and not getting credit for it from The Model or anyone really.
Then there are games like the Broncos and Packers games where the scores were remarkably close to the Vegas line when the Model predicted those winners covering. Thinking about what happened there or flipside why the Rams game wasn’t as close (The Model is a Cardinals fan) could help to avoid following The Model on bad bets.
We started sharing our picks this year, and we will finish out the year, but it is discouraging to have such a bad performance. I’m not sure why this system that we’ve been running for 5 years now seems to be losing its edge.
Here are the OU results. The Model won 57% of its OU bets.
That’s it for Week 14. I’m traveling home from Germany, with spotty Internet and laptop battery power. I won’t be able to run The Model for tonight’s game. I would guess The Model likes Tampa Bay by a wide margin, we’ll see when we run it. Your on your own for a bet tonight though.
Good luck!