Week 14 Picks
I’m traveling again. This time in Germany. I won’t be able to make bets from overseas, but let me share Jeremy’s notes and The Model’s picks.
Jeremy’s Notes
Seahawks @ Falcons: Falcons have messed us up a few times betting both watys on them. I do like the Seahawks -6.5 but the safe play is the ML with Cousins at QB. West coast travel to East for 1:00 game factor?
Bengals @ Bills: With Burrow back and Tee Higgins set to return I like the Bengals getting +6. Bosa and Oliver are out for the Bills (best two pass rushers). Could be a high scoring game if weather cooperates in Buffalo.
Titans @ Browns: Even with Sanders at QB I expect the Browns to win because of their defense. Titans are very limited and Garrett could have multiple sacks again. Take Browns on ML.
Commanders @ Vikings: JJ is trash, don’t trust him at all. With Jayden back at QB for Wash and Terry/Deebo healthy again I like Wash ML.
Dolphins @ Jets: Tua is terrible when temps are under 40 degrees. However, Fields is out along with their best WR (Wilson). Miami should be able to run the ball and hold onto a close one. Take Miami -2.5.
Saints @ Buccs: Baker makes a statement at home vs depleted Saints team. I like the Buccs to cover the -8.5 but if you want to use a parlay with ML I’m good with that. They beat the Saints 23-3 in NO first matchup.
Colts @ Jaguars: Jones is playing a little injured (fracture to his fibula). That will limit his moblity, not great vs a fast Jags D. I like Jax with +1.5 at home.
Steelers @ Ravens: I don’t like this game at all. One of the best rivalries in football. LJ is still not 100%, neither is Rogers. Both defenses are lacking. But -6 is a lot for Ravens. If you do bet this maybe Pitt +6.
Broncos @ Raiders: The Broncos offense has been bad as of late, however what better way to get right than a date with the Raiders. I see the Broncos defense getting a score in this one. Like Denver to cover the 7. Safe parlay with ML if not.
Bears @ Packers: GB is -6.5, I like the Bears getting +6.5. However, be careful of Williams holding the ball with Micah Parsons leading the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate. I know you have emotions in this one but when GB is home I say GB on the ML. When they visit Chicago I’ll take Bears ML. Also, Odunze is out today, not good for Caleb. Bears have to run the ball!
Rams @ Cardinals: Cardinals are starting Jacoby again and several playmakers are out today. Gonna be a lot of Trey McBride and that’s not enough vs the Rams who will be out for blood after a bad loss to Carolina. Rams are healthy and expect a double digit win. Taking Rams -9.5 and I like the over with Rams winning 34-17 (offense averaging 32 PPG over last 6).
Texans @ Chiefs: KC on ML. It’s in KC, if they lose they are basically out, so I don’t see the NFL allowing that to happen even if it is against the best D in the NFL. However, taking the Texans +6 could be a good bet since KC usually wins by less than 5 points. Chiefs have two back up tackles and Houston has top 2 rush end tandem in NFL with Anderson Jr and Hunter.
Eagles @ Chargers: If the Chargers can run the ball just enough to set up play action I like them at home. However, I think the Eagles were embarrassed by Chicago last week and they will be hungry. I trust Jalen to pull out the key victory to stay in the hunt for the 1 Seed. I think Saquon has a break out game this week, he is way overdue! Eagles ML but it’s a tough call.
The Model Picks
Here are The Model’s Picks and Scores.
