Week 12 Results
The Bears won! That’s all that matters.
We didn’t make any bets while traveling, but we did suggest a couple. So I’ll share how those bets would have done and how The Model did.
Our Bets
It was a little scary there for a bit, especially in the Detroit game, but Seattle, Baltimore, New England, and Detroit all won. So that $100 bet would have earned $170.
We also thought New England would have covered 6.5 points, and they only won by 6. When I told Jeremy about this, he said he wouldn’t have made that bet. He wanted to bet on the Bears to cover. Would have been a push. But this is why I don’t make bets unless I have written or recorded notes from Jeremy. Our memories don’t always line up.
The Model Results
Here are the results from The Model Picks and OU runs.
The Model went 2 for 4 on its underdogs picks, and matched Vegas with a 71% win rate. The Model was just 50% vs the spread.
The Model went 6 for 14 on OU picks. Maybe we should go back to betting against it. So many of The Models picks are within 1-2 points of the Vegas line. If you ignore those games you get much better results now and historically. It’s worth requiring at least a 1 point difference, taking the Over with the line at 44.5 when the model is predicting 44.77 doesn’t make much sense.
Quick note on over under win rates. The ones I’ve been posting these past few weeks are incorrect. The formula for the win column was incorrect, especially in cases where The Model predicted over under was close to the Vegas line. The images and notes above are the correct win rates for this past week.
We’re looking to get some picks in before tomorrow’s games start. Stay tuned.