Our Picks for Week 10 – Underdogs.win

Here are our picks for the games this weekend and Monday. Paying members still get Jeremy’s full insights and the numerical results from The Model below the fold.

Our Bets

$100 3-way parlay to win: IND, CAR, CHI. Pays $271.
$100 3-way parlay to win: TB, BUF, BAL. Pays $293.
$100 3-way parlay to win: DET, HOU, SEA. Pays $391.
$100 on Lions to cover 8.5 points. Pays $190.
$100 on Texans +1.5 points to win. Pays $183. (Underdogs!)
$10 on overtime in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $140.
$5 on a tie in the GB vs PHI game. Pays $230.
$10 11-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, SEA, DET, and LAR. Pays $446. (All games both Jeremy and The Model like.)
$5 13-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, NYJ, SEA, DET, LAR, and LAC. Pays $757. (All the games The Model likes.)
$5 14-way parlay to win: DEN, IND, BUF, BAL, TB, CAR, CHI, HOU, CLE, SEA, DET, PIT, and PHI. Pays $1955. (All the games Jeremy likes.)

This is $500 bet to win about $1328. We also bet on some long shots, $25 to win a potential $1433 or $2631 (depending if The Model or Jeremy has a perfect week). Long shots. The overtime/tie bet on Monday night’s game is fun, and not too out of line if you also are expecting a close game.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!

Jeremy’s Analysis

Falcons vs. Colts

Pick: Colts -6.5
Why: Indy bounces back with a balanced attack; expects a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor. Believes the Colts return to form as one of the league’s top offenses. Likes Indy by a touchdown or more at home, especially after acquiring Sauce Gardner.

Giants vs. Bears

Pick: Bears (Moneyline)
Why: Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Expects Chicago to take advantage at home despite Caleb Williams’ inconsistency. Avoids the spread—prefers straight-up win due to unpredictable play and weather.

Bills vs. Dolphins

Pick: Bills -9.5
Why: Miami in fire-sale mode; Buffalo is coming off a huge emotional win over KC. Weather favors Buffalo (not hot in Miami). Slight concern about a letdown game, but sees the Bills handling business comfortably.

Ravens vs. Vikings

Pick: Ravens (Win), Vikings +4.5 (Cover)
Why: Minnesota’s defense is better than stats suggest; JJ McCarthy’s hype overstated. Thinks Baltimore’s recent defensive trades haven’t fully meshed. Expects a ground-heavy Ravens win, but a close game—likes Vikings to cover.

Browns vs. Jets

Pick: Browns -2.5
Why: Jets are tanking after trading Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams. Cleveland’s defense is elite (#2 in yards allowed). Jets’ offense can’t score 22+ even vs. bad defenses. Likes Browns to win and cover easily.

Patriots vs. Buccaneers

Pick: Buccaneers (Moneyline or -2.5)
Why: Tampa off a bye, healthier roster, solid defense, and home field. Patriots are hot, but due for a regression. Only leans Tampa due to rest and home advantage—calls it a “stay-away” game otherwise.

Saints vs. Panthers

Pick: Panthers +5.5 (Win or Cover)
Why: Carolina playing tough, relying on defense and run game. Saints just lost key players including Rashid Shaheed. Panthers have beaten quality teams (MIA, DAL, GB) and seem to have figured something out.

Jaguars vs. Texans

Pick: Texans (Moneyline)
Why: Houston needs this win to stay in the division hunt. Jacksonville’s offense looks stale and injury-ridden. Texans defense improving; sees this as a split series with Houston taking the home game.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Why: Doesn’t buy into Jacoby Brissett hype. Seattle is one of the most complete teams in the league — balanced attack, no turnovers, and now adds another deep threat. Expects a convincing home win and cover.

Rams vs. 49ers

Pick: Rams (Moneyline)
Why: 49ers worn down by injuries and lack of rotation. Offense averaging just 17 points over last four games. Rams offense humming and won’t lose twice to SF. Expects another close game but Rams to take it outright.

Lions vs. Commanders

Pick: Lions -8.5
Why: Washington collapsing — defense giving up 34+ points per game. Detroit angry after a divisional loss, expects Dan Campbell’s team to “drop a 40-burger.” Strongest favorite of the week.

Steelers vs. Chargers

Pick: Lean Steelers (+3)
Why: Chargers’ O-line decimated, no run game. Steelers’ pass rush can exploit Herbert in shotgun. Concerned about Tomlin’s poor prime-time record without Big Ben but still leans Pittsburgh to pull off the upset.

Packers vs. Eagles

Pick: Eagles (Moneyline)
Why: Philly strong in prime time — Jalen Hurts: 11 TDs, 1 INT in last five night games. Defense reloaded with key additions. Packers too inconsistent offensively. Predicts a decisive Eagles win.

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for this week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

Here are the results from the Over/Under runs for The Model.

Strong Alignment (Same Winner, Similar Lean)

Falcons vs. Colts — Both: Indianapolis.
The Model by ~7.4; Jeremy said “win by a touchdown.” Identical lean.

Giants vs. Bears — Both: Chicago to win.
The Model by ~3.3; Jeremy takes the Bears moneyline (avoiding the spread). Moderate alignment.

Bills vs. Dolphins — Both: Buffalo in a rout.
The Model by ~9.8 (right on the 9.5 line); Jeremy expects an easy Bills win and maybe a cover.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks — Both: Seattle comfortably.
The Model by ~7.1; Jeremy says Seahawks cover -6.5. Direct agreement.

Lions vs. Commanders — Both: Detroit big.
The Model by ~9.8; Jeremy said “40-burger incoming.” Total alignment.

Alignment but Conditional / Nuanced

Ravens vs. Vikings — Both: Ravens win, Vikings cover.
The Model has Baltimore +1.5; Jeremy said “Ravens win, Vikings +4.5 cover.” Perfect “close game” match.

Buccaneers vs. Patriots — Both: Tampa Bay to win, cautious on spread.
The Model by ~4.7; Jeremy also picked Tampa ML only, “stay-away game.” Aligned winner, similar caution.

Rams vs. 49ers — Both: Rams win slightly.
The Model by ~5.3; Jeremy prefers Rams ML because of close games in series. Same direction, but Jeremy softer on spread.

Jaguars vs. Texans — The Model: Texans by ~7.9; Jeremy: Texans ML but expects closer game.
Not opposite, but The Model sees a blowout; Jeremy expects tighter but still Houston win — so partial disagreement in magnitude.

Eagles vs. Packers — Both: Philadelphia to win.
Jeremy is confident in Eagles prime-time dominance. The Model is chopped with Philly and GB winning in different runs, averaging to basically an even match at 0.16 pts for the Eagles. Might bet for overtime here.

Notable Disagreements

Saints vs. Panthers — The Model: Saints by ~4.1; Jeremy: Panthers outright/upset.
Direct opposite picks.

Browns vs. Jets — The Model: Jets by 2.5; Jeremy: Browns by 3+ and “no-brainer.”
Clear disagreement driven by Jets’ personnel trades that the model doesn’t account for.

Steelers vs. Chargers — The Model: Chargers by ~6.7; Jeremy: Lean Steelers (upset).
Another clean split — The Model fades Pittsburgh; Jeremy sees a live dog.

If you scrolled to the bottom for our picks, we posted them at the top of the post this week. Scroll back up.

Good luck, everyone!