Thursday Night NFL: LA Raiders at Denver Broncos
The Week 10 Thursday night matchup brings a divisional clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are trying to prove they’re still in the AFC West mix, while the Raiders look lost after weeks of blowouts and a roster thinning at wide receiver.
At the time of writing, the Vegas spread is at 9.5. That’s a big number to cover, what do The Model and Jeremy think?
Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.
Jeremy’s Thoughts
Some notes from my call with Jeremy this morning:
- Denver is a “no-brainer” pick. Vegas is losing by nearly 20 points per game over their last five, and Denver is one of the better teams they’ve faced lately.
- The Raiders’ offense has cratered, and they’ve shed key pieces like Jakobi Meyers.
- Expects a statement game from the Broncos: they want to stay atop the division.
- Vegas’s is in bad form. Six losses in seven games, averaging under 20 points even in their lone win, makes them ripe for another beating.
- On the total (42.5): leaning under, but not confident. Denver’s 18–15 game against Houston shows their defense can slow things down, and Vegas’s offense is weaker than Houston’s.
The Model’s Pick
The Model is predicting the Broncos to win by 11.5, and has the Bronco’s winning by at least 10 in all of its runs.
The Over/Under runs are predicting a Broncos win 25 to 16, which is just slightly below the spread and just slightly below the posted Over/Under of 42.5.
Our Bet
So all told, we’re just going to bet the Bronco’s winning and covering. Jeremy is very confident, but the model is a bit mixed with the OU runs predicting a lower scoring game, less likely for the Broncos to cover. We’re a little strapped for cash, and I’m more excited about the weekend bets, so I’m going to bet just a half a unit to get some action on tonight’s game.
$50 on the Broncos to win and cover 9.5 points.
If you’re feeling saucy and want something to keep you excited if the game is kind of a blow of stinker with the Raiders sitting out, a parlay with Broncos to cover 9.5 and Under 42.5 points is paying 4-to-1 and could be a fun bet.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!