Week 9 Results
Another scrappy week of NFL football. How did The Model do? How did our bets do?
We won just 1 of our 5 bets last week. Our faith in Bo Nix and the Broncos to win as underdogs recouped about $286. The Lions, Colts, and Green Bay losses, while good for the Bears, was bad for our bets. Our losers were spread evenly around our parlays. We bet $750, so ended the week down $464 or about 3-4 units.
Here are The Model Results
Fifty-sevens across the board. Vegas won on 57% of bets. So did The Model, including a decent 57% against the spread.
I feel bad about missing the overtime bet on the Jaguars/Radiers game. When I’ve analyzed it, games the model predicts under .5 points are definitely more likely to go to overtime, but not enough to make that a winning bet. Still, it’s a FUN bet, and so I like to make it. We would have hit this week. Maybe Jeremy talked me out of it.
I also shared The Model’s Over/Under picks to paying subscribers last week. These picks won a shocking 71% of the time. Where are my Over/Under bettors out there? We haven’t been playing this much this year, except in a few games, but it feels like there might be some alpha in focusing on the OU this year.
Jeremy vs The Model
I’m starting to loosely track the games where Jeremy and the Model differ. There were just 2 of those games this week: Jags/Raiders and Cardinals/Cowboys. In both of those games, The Model had the correct pick for winner.
A Note on Our Bets
We’re down for the year. If we take another beating this week, I’m likely going to lower our betting unit to avoid a wipeout. Of course the year we start sharing our picks, we lose money. And the week we start sharing our picks outside the paywall, we have maybe our biggest loss yet.
We’re still going to share those bets, outside the paywall. The fun action on social media is all around player parlays, but in general picks are a dime a dozen out there and available for free everywhere. I think we will always have to lead in public with our picks, put our money where our mouth is, and make ourselves fully accountable — even if we were sharing our results after the fact anyway.
A reminder: These are just our personal bets and opinions, not betting ADVICE. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
But some advice I will give you is to not blindly copy our picks. You might win. You might lose. If you instead read the analysis and incorporate it into your own thinking, even if that means disagreeing with us, you’re going to feel better about your bets, win or lose.