Thursday Night NFL:Ravens at the Miami Dolphins
Lamar Jackson is back, and the Baltimore Ravens are traveling down to sunny Miami to play the Dolphins.
What is going to happen tonight?
Jeremy Says
- Lamar is scheduled to return. That’s an instant +10 points of offense for Baltimore.
- Miami’s offense looked good against Atlanta, and Baltimore has a weak defense.
- Miami has been too inconsistent so I like the Ravens Moneyline.
- Fun Prop – Jackson 4 total TDs. He wants to make a statement.
The Model Says
- Ravens to win by 6.5, so just under the 7.5 spread.
- The score to be something like 29 to 24 Ravens, so 53 total points, more than the 51.5 OU.
What do we bet?
My app doesn’t let me bet for “total TDs”, it’s passing or “anytime TDs” (rushing or receiving). So we’d have to make a prediction on the TD makeup there. The smart play for the Ravens would be to let Derrick Henry punch in those TDs and keep your QB healthy, but again Jeremy thinks Harbaugh and Jackson “make a statement”.
So I’m not sure on the player props there. We will probably bet something silly on the side.
To bet in line with Jeremy and The Model’s prediction, you can 2-way parlay: Ravens to win moneyline + over 51.5 points. So we’re going to put $50 on that. It pays around $113.
You could also bet Dolphins +7.5 and under 51.5 points if you wanted to do a kind of hedge vs how exciting the shoot out goes.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!