Our Picks for Week 7 – Underdogs.win

I’m posting this late to give Jeremy time to process injury reports.

Thursday’s game was exciting, but the Steelers lost, busting the 3-way “primetime” parlay I setup for Thursday’s bet.

Let’s see if we can make some money on the other games today and tomorrow.

Side note: I’m changing this post to “Our Picks” since these posts try to synthesize Jeremy’s notes and The Model’s results into one set of bets. I’ll still share Jeremy’s thoughts separately and The Model’s results separately, so you can make your own decisions.

Also: Subscribe over at YouTube to catch our live streams. We’re keeping them to around 30 minutes, and they are the fastest way for you to get access to our thoughts and picks… for free. Subscribe here for just $5 to get the full details.

Jeremy’s Analysis

To save time, I’ve started passing the transcript from our video into ChatGPT to generate the summaries. I’m just glancing over them now. There don’t seem to be errors, but let me know if you watched the video and caught something.

Rams vs Jaguars

(This game had already started before this post went live. I’m including the notes here for consistency, but we weren’t planning to bet this game. The spread seems accurate.)

Pick (conditional): If Puka Nacua plays → Rams; if Puka sits → Jaguars +3.5. Confidence: Low-Medium (injury dependent).
Why: Rams’ offense is “Puka-dependent”; Jags’ feisty secondary and recent form at home.

Bears vs Saints

Pick: Bears to win; moneyline preferred over -4.5. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Bears’ momentum under Ben Johnson/Caleb; Saints shopping WRs and trending toward a sell stance.

Dolphins vs Browns

Pick: Browns moneyline at home; no spread call. Confidence: Medium.
Why: Browns defense vs a Dolphins team without Tyreek and Waddle underperforming; expects Tua to struggle vs CLE front.

Patriots vs Titans

Pick: Patriots to win and cover (around -7). Confidence: Medium-High.
Why: NE playing sound in all phases; Drake Maye improving weekly; Titans offense toothless. Belichick angle returning to TEN.

Chiefs vs Raiders

Pick: Chiefs to win; lean to cover (-11.5 to -12). Confidence: Medium.
Why: Chiefs seeking statement game; expect 30+ from KC; Raiders unlikely to keep pace despite division angle.

Eagles vs Vikings

Pick: Eagles moneyline (stay off spread). Confidence: Low.
Why: “Must-win for locker-room psyche.” Eagles O looks basic, team turbulence (coaches/usage drama), but wary of MIN inconsistency at home.

Panthers vs Jets

Pick: Panthers to win (on the road). Confidence: Medium.
Why: CAR playing with emotion; RB duo running hard; Jets’ offense collapsed (even negative net passing yards last week).

Giants vs Broncos

Pick: Broncos to win and cover (around -7). Confidence: Medium-High.
Why: DEN elite pass D/sacks, Mile High factor; Giants in letdown spot after emotional win; expect NYG no passing game vs Surtain & co.

Colts vs Chargers

Pick: Stayaway; if betting, consider Overtime prop. Confidence: Low.
Why: Matchup is razor-close; Chargers weak run D vs strong Colts run game, but Chargers pass D tests Danny; feels coin-flip.

Commanders vs Cowboys

Pick: Commanders moneyline (line around -1.5 to -2.5). Confidence: Medium.
Why: DAL defense leaking 30+; expects Jaden Daniels to gash on the ground; WAS WRs trending healthier.
Update: Too many injuries in the Commanders receiving squad. We’re going to avoid betting on this game.

Packers vs Cardinals

Pick: Packers to win; no cover call at -6.5 on the road. Confidence: Medium.
Why: GB run game hot; ARI mediocre across the board; but Packers aren’t blowing teams out.

Falcons vs 49ers

Pick: Falcons to win (upset). Confidence: Medium.
Why: 49ers decimated by injuries (stars out on both sides); ATL defense rising, Bijan can carry load; needs Penix to make key throws.

Buccaneers vs Lions

Pick: Over ~52; Bucs +5.5 if 2 of their 3 WRs (Evans/Godwin/Egbuka) play. Confidence: Medium (conditional).
Why: Expect Detroit bounce-back offense at home and TB able to match; wait on TB WR availability before placing.

Texans vs Seahawks

Pick: Seahawks to win and cover (about -3). Confidence: Medium.
Why: 12th Man, run game (Walker/Charbonnet) to set up play-action for Darnold; expects 27–23/27–20 type game; Texans’ résumé inflated by soft wins.
Matchups: Says JSN is uncoverable; expects Texans to cap deep shots, opening underneath for Cooper Kupp (Jeremy’s words).

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for this week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

New here: I’ve italicized the games where Jeremy and the model have different picks. This we can analyze those and try to learn something from who was right.

Strong Alignment (Same Winner, Similar Lean)

Raiders vs Chiefs — Both take the Chiefs. Jeremy thinks Kansas City will cover, and The Model mostly agrees, projecting around an 11-point win, roughly matching the -11.5 line.
Saints vs Bears — Both go with the Bears. Jeremy is cautious about the -4.5 spread, and The Model echoes that hesitancy, showing only a -2.5 margin — still a Bears win, but probably not a cover.
Giants vs Broncos — Both like the Broncos. Jeremy expects Denver to cover easily, and The Model backs that up, projecting a -10.5 margin versus a -7 line.
Packers vs Cardinals — Both are on the Packers. Jeremy doubts they’ll cover on the road, but The Model actually gives them a +7.1 margin — slightly more confident in a two-score win.
Commanders vs Cowboys — Update: Too many injuries in the Commanders, specifically the receiving squad. We’re going to avoid betting this game now.
Falcons vs 49ers — Both see an upset brewing with the Falcons. Jeremy likes them outright, and The Model agrees, predicting a +3-point edge and a solid 5.5 confidence rating.
Texans vs Seahawks — Both back the Seahawks. Jeremy expects Seattle to cover, but The Model is less certain, forecasting a -2.7 margin — still a win, just not a strong cover.

Alignment but Conditional / Nuanced

Buccaneers vs Lions — The Model was picking Tampa Bay to win and Jeremy like them with the points.
Rams vs Jaguars — Jeremy says it depends on Puka Nacua’s health — Rams if he plays, Jags if he doesn’t. The Model sticks with the Rams, projecting a +3.7 margin, but with low confidence (0.7) — basically agreeing, but not firmly.
Panthers vs Jets — Both like the Panthers, though Jeremy’s belief is stronger. The Model’s margin is just +1.6 with almost no confidence (0.05) — technically aligned, but statistically a coin flip.

Notable Disagreements

Patriots vs Titans — Jeremy is all-in on the Patriots to win and cover (-7). The Model completely disagrees, picking the Titans with a 7.6 confidence and projecting them to edge out New England.
Eagles vs Vikings — Jeremy leans Eagles moneyline but admits low conviction. The Model flips it, taking the Vikings by 1.5 points with moderate confidence — seeing a mild home-field edge.
Dolphins vs Browns — Jeremy trusts the Browns’ defense at home. The Model doesn’t — it likes the Dolphins by about +2 points, showing decent confidence (4.5) in Miami bouncing back.

Our Bets

$150 on Denver to win and cover.
$150 on Atlanta to win with +1.5 points.
$150 on Tampa Bay to win +6 points.
$100 3-way parlay to win: KC, CHI, CAR
$100 3-way parlay to win: GB, DET, SEA
$10 for a tie in the Indianapolis vs Los Angeles Chargers.
$10 for overtime in the Indianapolis vs Los Angeles Chargers.
$10 on a 7-win parlay: KC, CHI, GB, SEA, CAR, ATL, DEN

That’s $650 in bets to win about $1522, and then $30 on the long shots to win a potential $845 more.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!