Model Picks for Week 6
Bye weeks are thinning depth charts, travel quirks (hello, London) are muddying signals, and variance has teeth. Time to tighten up: fewer forced plays, lean on matchups and injuries, and only parlay what actually deserves it.
We got crushed with our bet on the Eagles Thursday. Let’s dive into Jeremy and The Model’s analysis to see if we can make up some ground this weekend.
Jeremy’s Analysis
Watch the full stream for color and rants; highlights below are the distilled takeaways.
Eagles vs. Giants
Jeremy’s off the upset train here. Eagles to win and cover ~7 in their easiest spot of the year. Expect a Hulk smash Saquon game vs. NYG (150–175 total, 2 TDs) and Philly finally gets a double-digit win after a run of close ones.
Editor’s note: Oops. Things went exactly inversed in this game, with the Giants crushing the Eagles. To make it worse, Jeremy had Cameron Skattebo on the bench in his fantasy team.
Jets vs. Broncos (London)
Winner: Broncos, but spread is dicey with the long West-to-UK travel. If it floats ≥7, he’d rather avoid the cover; money line is the safer angle. Lower-scoring lean; those defenses can gunk it up overseas.
Cardinals vs. Colts
Jeremy is done with Arizona (“fool me twice…”). Colts to win and cover ~7 at home. Indy’s rebuilt OL + healthy JT gives Jones time; the offense is quietly 30+ PPG capable and the defense is respectable. Calls the Cards frauds until proven otherwise.
Chargers vs. Dolphins
LA’s backfield is a MASH unit, which breaks Harbaugh’s run/play-action script. Traveling cross-country into two live edge rushers is a problem. Miami +4.5 feels right; total over 43.5 is viable with both defenses leakier than billed.
Patriots vs. Saints
Jeremy likes the Patriots (money line). Drake Maye is processing, Diggs is getting volume, and NE’s corners can corral NO’s perimeter speed. Think field-goal game; calls it NE by a whisker.
Browns vs. Steelers
Schedule/travel spot screams Pittsburgh (off a bye, at home, rookie QB on the other sideline). Steelers money line preferred; he’s less comfy laying -5.5 given Tomlin’s close-game habit. Rookie will meet TJ Watt & friends—welcome to the league.
Cowboys vs. Panthers
Panthers are Jekyll/Hyde. Jeremy trusts Dallas -3.5 with Pickens ascending and Dak steady. Notes the defense has quietly ticked up; expects Cowboys by >4.
Seahawks vs. Jaguars
Stay-away. Brutal travel/weather swing for Seattle into humid Florida, Jags on a short week after a big win. If forced, JAX at home—but Jeremy’s honest: Seattle’s peskiness makes this a trap.
Rams vs. Ravens
Numbers point all Rams (Ravens defense leaking ~35 PPG recently; Lamar uncertainty). But Ravens have burned us in both directions, so Jeremy won’t lay -7.5. Lean Rams to win, avoid the spread. (He’ll sprinkle tiny ML at most.)
Titans vs. Raiders
Puke game. Either team could score zero. Pass on sides/totals. If you must, a tiny Raiders ML leg inside a parlay only.
Bengals vs. Packers
Tempting Bengals +14.5: Flacco can still spin it, Cincy weapons are real, and back-door opens when GB goes prevent. Pair with Over 44.5 for a correlated nibble.
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Second stay-away. Niners keep winning with duct tape; Bucs are feisty at home. Jeremy leans Bucs ML but won’t force it.
Lions vs. Chiefs
Lions outright. Best pass-catching room in football (counting RBs and TE), Goff won’t sit in the pocket for Chris Jones, and KC’s non-McDuffie DBs can be hunted. Jeremy calls it “embarrass potential” and skips the points: money line.
Bills vs. Falcons
Classic Bills bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss. Buffalo to win and cover (-3.5 to -4.5). Jeremy even floated a five-TD Allen kind of afternoon.
Bears vs. Commanders
Sorry Jason—Washington -4.5. Bears’ rush defense vs. the league’s top rushing attack is a mismatch, which likely opens 300+ passing for Daniels when CHI sells out to stop the run. Emotional hedge candidate.
The Model’s Picks
Here are The Model Picks for the third week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)
Where Jeremy and The Model Align
- Eagles over Giants — Model by ~14.5; Jeremy: cover the ~-7.
- Lions over Chiefs — Model has DET slightly despite KC favored (sheet shows Lions +2.25 vs. market -2.5). Jeremy: Lions ML.
- Bills over Falcons — Model Bills by ~6.5; Jeremy expects a bounce-back cover.
- Commanders over Bears — Model by ~9–10; Jeremy: Washington -4.5.
- Broncos over Jets — Model likes Denver; Jeremy: ML safer than spread across the pond.
- Colts over Cardinals — Model edges Indy (tight), Jeremy: Colts cover at home.
- Raiders over Titans — Model Raiders by ~6; Jeremy only in a tiny parlay leg.
- Buccaneers over 49ers — Model leans TB by a field goal; Jeremy leans Bucs ML but won’t force it.
Notable Disagreements
- Rams at Ravens — Sheet shows Ravens to win; Jeremy leans Rams (Lamar status/defense trend).
- Seahawks over Jaguars — Model by ~5; Jeremy still tags it stay-away given travel/heat volatility.
- Chargers at Dolphins — Model Chargers by ~2–3; Jeremy Dolphins +4.5 given LA RB injuries.
- Patriots at Saints — Model essentially even with a hair to NO; Jeremy Patriots ML.
- Bengals at Packers — Model Packers big (~-12.5 vs. -14); Jeremy takes Bengals +14.5 for the back-door.
Our Bets
- $150 on Lions +2.5 points to win vs Chiefs.
- $150 on Commanders -4.5 to win and cover vs Bears.
- $150 on Bills -4.5 to win and cover vs Falcons.
- $100 on a 3-way parlay: DEN, PIT, IND.
- $100 on a 3-way parlay: LV, TB, GB.
- $20 on a 8-way parlay: DEN, PIT, IND, TB, GB, DET, BUF, WAS.
This is $670 in bets to win about $1700.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!