Model Picks for Week 4 – Underdogs.win

Jeremy and I went over the week 4 games last Wednesday. You can view the entire 30 minute-ish video here on YouTube.

The Seahawks squeaked by, covering the spread Thursday, and netting us one unit for our bet. Read below for notes on how Jeremy and The Model are thinking about the games Sunday and Monday this week.

Jason in headphones. Jeremy in a "Made in America" hat.

Jeremy’s Analysis

Here is an AI generated summary of Jeremy’s notes for each game this week.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

Seahawks to win; strong run game and good coaching give them an edge.
Arizona’s offense is disconnected — Marvin Harrison Jr. can’t find chemistry with Kyler Murray.
James Conner’s season-ending injury swung momentum, with Seattle becoming road favorites.
Expect Seattle to cover the -1.5 spread.

Vikings vs. Steelers

Vikings favored to win and cover -2.5.
Steelers have no run game and a banged-up secondary facing Justin Jefferson.
Minnesota’s defense should make the difference.
Both picks lukewarm — not a strong confidence game.

Commanders vs. Falcons

Jeremy’s pick during the video was Commanders to win and cover -1.5.
But both Jayden Daniels and Terry McLauren are out, and so we’re going to avoid this game.

Saints vs. Bills

Bills to win at home.
Spread of -16.5 is huge; possible alternate line (e.g., -12.5) is safer.
Saints look like they are tanking for a top QB pick.
Bills victory is likely, but cover is uncertain due to garbage-time points.

Browns vs. Lions

Lions to win and cover -10.
Cleveland’s offense has no run game or passing threat.
Detroit’s defense played fast and aggressive in recent games.
Lions’ high-scoring streak continues, with strong home-field momentum.

Panthers vs. Patriots

Patriots to win at home.
Spread of -5.5 feels risky, but New England is expected to bounce back.
Carolina’s defense is weak, and their win over the Falcons looked like a fluke.
Possible value on the over given both defenses.

Chargers vs. Giants

Chargers to win and cover.
Giants starting rookie QB Jackson Dart against a dangerous LAC defense.
New York’s defense ranks second-worst in the league.
Justin Herbert set up for a big game to bolster his MVP case.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

Stay away game.
Eagles win close games; Bucs also keep games close behind Baker Mayfield.
Philadelphia’s secondary struggles against strong passing attacks.
If betting: lean Eagles money line or Bucs +3.5.

Titans vs. Texans

Texans to win at home.
Don’t trust them to cover -7.5, but solid pick for money line.
Tennessee’s offense and defense both bottom-tier.
Houston roster is stronger and more desperate for a win.

Colts vs. Rams

Rams to win and cover -3.5.
Stafford, Puka Nacua, and weapons vs. banged-up Colts secondary is a mismatch.
Colts’ undefeated record is misleading — weak opponents and fluky wins.
Rams expected to bounce back after a frustrating loss.

Jaguars vs. 49ers

49ers to win at home.
Spread of -3.5 is risky with so many SF injuries, especially at WR and defense.
Christian McCaffrey is the most reliable player on the field.
Safer bet: Niners money line or use them in a parlay.

Ravens vs. Chiefs

Ravens to win and cover -2.5.
Baltimore expected to either win by a field goal or blowout.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry set up for big performances.
Rare spot: Chiefs are home underdogs, showing how tight this game is.

Bears vs. Raiders

Bears to win as a rare road favorite.
Chicago coming off their best performance, building momentum.
Raiders lack a run game and defensive confidence.
Fun game for fans, but the line is tight and risky.

Packers vs. Cowboys

Packers to win.
Dallas defense leaking points — average 30+ allowed per game.
Packers offense likely to score 30+.
Spread near -7 is dangerous; safer to watch line movement and take ML or -6.5.

Dolphins vs. Jets

Jets to win outright.
Miami struggling; Tua looks shaky with turnovers, and locker room confidence is down.
Jets defense and run game are good enough to steal a win.
With Fields expected back, NYJ are due for their first victory.

Bengals vs. Broncos

Broncos to win at home.
Cincinnati with Jake Browning at QB is too inconsistent and turnover-prone.
Denver’s defense is legit, though their offense is less explosive than last year.
Spread of -7.5 feels too steep — better to avoid or take ML only.

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for the third week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

The Model really likes the Commands here. We rarely see a confidence that high. But with Daniels and McLauren out, we’re going to stay away from that game. Even though the Commanders are now getting 1.5 points instead of giving 1.5 points.

The Model likes the Chargers to cover, and so does Jeremy, so we will probably place a good bet there.

The Model is picking the Colts to win as underdogs. Jeremy was keen on the Rams in this game. Does The Model see something here Jeremy doesn’t? I’m not betting it.

So what am I betting…

Our Bets

These are the exact bets I’m making here for this week, literally right now as I write this. If I make any other bets before Sunday, or if I pay to cancel a bet early, I’ll mention it in an future post.

$10 12-pick parlay, all money line to win: MIN Vikings, LA Chargers, PHI Eagles, DET Lions, BUF Bills, HOU Texans, NE Patriots, SF 49ers, BAL Ravens, GB Packers, NY Jets, DEN Broncos. Pays $725.
$20 3-way parlay on the Patriots Panthers game: NE to win, Car +5.5, Over. Pays $170.
$150 on Chargers to win and cover 3.5 points.
$150 on Jets to win as underdogs with 2.5 points.
$100 on Lions to win and cover 10 points.
$100 3-way parlay: Vikings, Eagles, and Texans to win moneyline.
$100 3-way parlay: Bills, 49ers, and Ravens to win moneyline.
$100 3-way parlay: Patriots, Packers, and Broncos to win moneyline.

That’s about $700 to win $1596 in our main bets, and $30 to win $895 in those long shot bets. The Patriots bet is just fun. The big 12-way parlay type bets I make just to have an easy way to follow all of the games I’m interested in while looking at the DraftKings app. We’ve hit these a few times and it just give us a bigger score on the weeks we nail it.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!