Model Picks for Week 3

Silly me. I thought we could get our call down to 30 minutes, 45 minutes at the max. Instead we have 60 minutes of Jeremy spitting knowledge on the matchups this week in the NFL.

If you’d like to see a written version of this analysis, along with a snapshot of The Model’s picks and the actual bets I’m going to make this week, continue reading below.

Jeremy’s Analysis

Here is a summary of Jeremy’s notes on the games.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

• Buffalo Bills blowout victory
• Suggests betting on the over for the 50-point line
• We shared our full analysis and bet for this game on Thursday. (Hint: we won on the bet!)

Green Bay Packers vs. Cleveland Browns

• Green Bay Packers to cover the seven-and-a-half-point spread due to their strong defense and the Browns’ scoring struggles.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

• Indianapolis Colts to cover the three-and-a-half-point spread
• Colts have a solid defense and run game against the Titans’ struggling passing offense.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

• We’re going to avoid betting on this game due to uncertainties.
• If forced to choose, Jeremy favors the Bengals on the money line.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots

• Will the Steelers’ defense will improve?
• Take the Steelers on the money line, given they are only minus one and a half points favorites.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Eagles will win but by only three points
• The Rams with the points is an appealing bet. (For some analysis for why this would be a BAD bet, read our Week 2 recap.)
• Instead take the Eagles on the money line.

New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the six-and-a-half-point spread, especially with Justin Fields out for the Jets.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders

• Washington Commanders will win and cover the three-and-a-half-point spread, anticipating a big game for Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels. (This was before Daniels was declared out. So instead, we will avoid this game.)

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

• Atlanta Falcons will win and cover the five-and-a-half-point spread
• The Falcons have had an impressive defense so far this year, and the Panthers are struggling.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• The Houston Texans should secure their first win of the season in this division game.
• Take Texans moneyline.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• Game of the week!
• Chargers will win and cover the two-and-a-half-point spread.
• Bo Nix is struggling, and the Chargers are strong on offense and defense.

New Orleans Saints vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Seattle Seahawks to win, but Jeremy is hesitant about the seven-and-a-half-point spread.
• Jeremy likes the Saints plus seven and a half points as a “fun bet,” believing the Saints will keep it close.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears

• Dallas Cowboys to cover the minus one-and-a-half-point spread
• The Bears are struggling on defense, and the Cowboys could exploit that.

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

• The Arizona Cardinals could pull off an upset against the San Francisco 49ers
• The 49ers have extensive injuries.
• The Cardinals have good chemistry and Kyler Murray’s mobility.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Giants

• Kansas City Chiefs will win despite their struggles
• Doesn’t like the Chiefs to cover. It’s 6.5 points, and the Chiefs have had close games lately.
• Okay to take the Giants with the points.

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens

• This is a tough, potentially high-scoring game.
• Take the Ravens on the money line, but if working with the spread, take the Lions as underdogs with the five-and-a-half-points.

The Model’s Picks

Here are The Model Picks for the third week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

One thing to note always with the model, and especially this week with so many backup QBs in play… the model doesn’t know how to process key injuries. For QBs, I sometimes update the QBR score, but if the injury report came late, I might not have updated The Model to account for that. You could think of it like The Model expects the backups QB to have the same number of passing yards and TDs as the starting QB would have had. In general, we avoid making bets on games with key injuries, i.e. backup QBs in play. Be especially suspect of The Model’s picks in these games.

Jeremy had quite a few “underdog with the points” suggestions, but more exciting are the games where Jeremy and The Model are taking the underdog to straight win. We have some good stuff to work with here.

Our Bets

These are the exact bets I’m making here for this week, literally right now as I write this. If I make any other bets before Sunday, or if I pay to cancel a bet early, I’ll mention it in an future post.

• $10 on 9 win parlay: GB, TB, PHI, ATL, PIT, HOU, SEA, ARI, and KC.
• $150 on Arizona with 2.5 points.
• $150 on Atlanta to cover 5.5 points.
• $100 on Green Bay to cover 8.5 points.
• $100 on Houston with 1.5 points.
• $100 on Detroit with 4.5 points.
• $100 3 way parlay on Steelers, Eagles, and Buccaneers to win.
• $100 3 way parlay on Texans, Chiefs, Seahawks to win.

This is about $800 bet to win $1835 for our primary bets. And $10 to win $450 on that 9 way parlay. Those 3 way parlays are risking 3.5-to-1 shots. You could split them up into pairs to make more conservative bets (and hit our rule about odd numbers of bets of the same type). I’m feeling like gambling a bit.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!