Thursday Night Game Week 3: Miami at Buffalo
Every Thursday we will post our analysis, The Model’s picks, and our bets (if any) on the Thursday night game. This is meant to be a little bit of a taste of our full analysis and picks for the week.
This week the Miami Dolphins travel up to Buffalo to face off against the Bills. We have a powerful 2-0 Bills team that is looking as good as ever vs a Miami Dolphins team that might be relegated to the minor leagues at the end of the season.
Let’s see what Jeremy and The Model have to say.
Editor’s Note: We have decided to make this Thursday picks public for everyone. Future picks will require a Free membership or Model Picks membership, which is just $5 for the entire season.
Analysis, Model, and Picks
Jeremy anticipates a Bills blowout victory, expecting them to score around 40 points. The 12.5 point spread is a lot to cover, and a risky bet considering even in blowout games the winning team will often let up toward the end and allow “garbage time” points that eat into the margin. That said, Jeremy still thinks betting the over is worth.
Jeremy also notes that Bills linebacker Matt Milano will be out, which could lead to more touches for Miami’s De’Von Achane.
The Model, while still picking the Bills to win by 8-9 points, doesn’t have them covering in any of its runs.
When Jeremy and The Model disagree, we don’t bet it. So I’m not going to bet on the Bills to cover, even though that feels like a decent bet. Betting Bills moneyline doesn’t pay too well, so we are looking into some parlay and prop bet options, just to get some action on tonights game.
Jason ran The Model in a mode to get Over/Under estimates, and The Model is picking the over. So is Jeremy. So perhaps we can do Bills to win, the over, and throw in a prop bet on Achane there.
Here’s our bet. A $50 bet right now is paying $176 if it hits:
- Bills to Win
- Over 49.5 Points
- Achane over 50 Yards
The risks to this bet are either a tougher defensive game that keeps Achane’s yards down and/or perhaps Miami falling behind so much that they feel they have to pass the ball.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!