Model Picks Week 2 Results
This is a review of the picks and bets we made last week. Let’s see how we did Week 2.
We won a bit of money this week. This feels great after breaking exactly even last week. Still, we felt like we left some on the table. Let’s break things down.
How Did The Model Do?
Here are the Week 2 picks, including the actual results for the week.
This image includes the actual margin of victory (negative if the away team won) and whether or not The Model picked the winner, picked the winner vs the spread (i.e. to cover or win with points), and if the odds picked the winner.
The odds favorite won in 69% of games. Nice. The Model on the other hand only picked the winner 63% of the time, same as last week. The Model won vs the spread 56% of the time.
Our Tampa Bay underdog pick won again. We missed the Falcons, Colts, and Patriots showing up as underdogs.
How Did Jeremy Do?
Last week, I recorded my call with Jeremy. And so we have his exact picks for every game. Sometime on Monday, he texted me: “I think I was right on every game except the Broncos and Steelers. Vikings was a ‘lean’, but not confident.”
I’m not going to put his picks into a sheet until someone forces me, but on a quick scan, I think he’s about right. The Cardinals didn’t cover, but most of his picks vs the spread were spot on, especially if you assume he would have just bet the moneyline in cases where he was worried about a favorite covering the spread. Speaking of that, we shouldn’t have bet on Washington.
How Did Our Bets Do?
We won $910 on $750 in bets. So up $160, about 1 unit.
- We bet bigger on the Tampa Bay game again and were rewarded.
- We won our other big bet on the Bills.
- We only won 1 of our 3-team parlays, and for just $135. So we lost $15 on these bets. Still, that’s not so bad considering we only won 1 of 3 bets. Luck should have us winning 2 of 3 some weeks, which will be nice.
I said earlier that we shouldn’t have bet the Washington game. Let’s break that down.
It was a bit of an extra bet that I made for a couple of reasons, (1) so we’d have an odd number of straight up bets and (2) so we’d have something in play for the Thursday night game.
Since Jermey thought GB would win, but not cover, and The Model had Washington winning, I thought Washington with points would be a good bet. But not really.
For one, I just shouldn’t bet at all when Jeremy and The Model disagree. The outcome isn’t typically some average of what Jeremy and The Model think, but more often just one of them being right while the other is missing something.
Also, in this case, if we trust Jeremy’s pick that GB is going to win, we only win on our bet when GB wins by less than 4. Any margin bigger than that is a loss for us.
I only later thought of the 3-way parlay bet, but it was a much better bet. The bet was GB to win, Washington with 3.5 points, and the score under 48.
Only 2 parts of that hit. So that bet still lost. But at least we were getting 12-to-1 on our money vs the even money bet on Washington to cover with points. Those better odds were more in line with the chance we were giving Washington to keep it within 3 points, which would be more likely in a close game.
I’ll take the win on the week. We’re up on the year so far. But it’s good to break things down and see how we could do better.
Week 3 picks coming soon.