Model Picks for Week 2

I generated the Model Picks yesterday. Now, after chatting with Jeremy this morning, I have everything I need to make some picks for Week 2.

I have a video recoding of the call with Jeremy. It’s over an hour long, with some technical difficulties up front. The video is not where I would like it in terms of setup, time, and quality. At the same time, the video does have Jeremy’s raw thoughts and includes a bit of commentary from me RE how The Model works. So if you’d like to see the video before Sunday, let me know in the comments, and I will edit it up and get it posted.

We broke even last week. I’m hoping we can score a good win this week.

Jeremy’s Analysis

Here are the notes from my call with Jeremy:

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders

• Favors Green Bay on the moneyline, but not the spread.
• Washington could be a play with the points; both defenses looked good last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• Likes the Bengals to win and cover the 3.5-point spread.
• Expects a modest scoreline (around 21–17 or 24–17) with both offenses still finding rhythm.

New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Sees this as a must-win for Dallas, especially at home.
• Backs the Cowboys to win, but covering the 5.5 spread is tough in a division rivalry.

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

• Confident the Lions cover the 5.5 spread, predicting something like 31–20.
• Expects Detroit’s offense to bounce back strongly behind their line and RB duo.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tennessee Titans

• Favors the Rams to win, but thinks the 5.5 spread is risky.
• Likes the over 41.5 total, expecting Rams to put up 24–27 points.

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins

• Skeptical of Miami: concerned about Tua’s concussions and team distractions.
• Given both teams’ struggles, prefers to stay away from this game.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

• Believes the 49ers’ Super Bowl window is closed due to injuries.
• Would pick 49ers moneyline if forced, but better to stay away entirely.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

• Strongly favors the Bills to win and cover the 6.5 spread.
• Doesn’t see the Jets’ defense replicating last week’s success against Buffalo.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Very confident in the Steelers at home, liking them to cover the 2.5 spread.
• Calls it a must-win given their schedule and Rodgers’ leadership.

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Expects the Ravens to win, but sees the 11.5 spread as dangerous.
• Browns often play Baltimore close; better to avoid the cover.

Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Favors the Broncos to win and cover (1.5 spread).
• Doesn’t trust Daniel Jones to repeat his previous week’s numbers against Denver’s defense.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

• Strongly favors the Cardinals to win and cover the 6.5 spread.
• Expects Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. to have big games.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Expects the Eagles to win and cover (–1.5).
• Chiefs’ offense looks weak without Kelce dominance; Eagles’ O-line should control.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Leans Vikings to win at home.
• Doesn’t trust the Falcons’ playoff buzz; Vikings need this to keep pace in the division.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans

• Leans Buccaneers to win, especially if getting points.
• Thinks Baker Mayfield’s consistency makes Tampa a solid pick.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Confident in the Chargers to win and cover.
• Calls them the team he’s most confident in, citing defense and pass attack.

The Model Picks

Here are The Model Picks for the second week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)

Jeremy and The Model are in alignment this week, agreeing on the winner of 14 of the 16 games. We will be making a lot of 3-game parlay picks again.

There are teams where both The Model and Jeremy expected the favorite to cover: Buffalo, Detroit, Denver, Arizona, and the LA Chargers. We will bet on 3 of those that we seem most confident on.

And finally, for the second week in a row, both The Model and Jeremy like Tampa Bay as an underdog. We will probably make a bet there.

Bets I’m Making

These are the exact bets I’m making here for this week, literally right now as I write this. If I make any other bets before Sunday, or if I pay to cancel a bet early, I’ll mention it in an future post.

• $10 12-pick parlay on the following to win: BUF, DAL, BAL, PIT, CIN, DET, ARI, DEN, PHI, MIN, TB, LA. (Basically every team we bet to win below. Pays $1,617. This is a fun way to keep track of the bets and pays extra if we have a perfect week.)
• $150 on the Buffalo Bills to win and cover.
• $150 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win with 2.5 points.
• $100 on the Washington Commands to win with 3.5 points.
• $100 on the Denver Broncos to win and cover.
• $100 on the Arizona Cardinals to win and cover.
• $50 3-pick parlay on DAL, PIT, and CIN to win.
• $50 3-pick parlay on BAL, ARI, and PHI to win.
• $50 3-pick parlay on DET, DEN, and MIN to win.

This is about $750 bet to win $1,610 for our primary bets. And another $10 to win $1,617 on that long shot bet.

These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.

Good luck everyone!