Week 13 Picks
Happy Thanksgiving. There are a bunch of games today. And tomorrow the Bears will face off and crush the Eagles. It’s an odd week for the NFL schedule-wise, so I’m just going to post our notes on all the games and make this week’s picks available for free. But first, our bets…
Our Bets
- $100 Bills -3.5 to cover vs Steelers. Pays $190.
- $50 3-way parlay to win moneyline: DEN, ATL, SF. Pays $166.
- $50 4-way parlay to win moneyline: PHI, JAX, LAC, LAR. Pays $118.
- $25 7-way parlay to win moneyline: BAL, MIA, ATL, TB, SF, DEN, NE. Pays $315.
- $10 15-way parlay to win moneyline: DET, BAL, PHI, SF, LA, JAX, TB, MIA, ATL, SEA, LAC, BUF, DEN, NE. Pays $846.
That’s $225 in bets to win $789 and a $10 long shot to win $846.
These are my personal bets and opinions, not betting advice. Wager at your own risk and within your means.
Good luck everyone!
Jeremy’s Notes
I usually run these through ChatGPT to format and summarize them, but let me share with you Jeremy’s unfiltered notes on this week’s games:
Packers @ Lions: Take Detroit -3
Detroit at home in what is a MUST WIN game for them in the division. Detroit has to avoid a sweep by GB. Detroit got some health back on their OL which suffered against PHL but bounced back at NYG
Chiefs @ Cowboys: Cowboys +3.5
All signs point to the NFL helping KC and their poster child Kermit the Frog on TG on a national stage. However, I can’t ignore the fact that the Cowboys defense is revamped and healthy. The offense basically put them behind the 8 ball with terrible mistakes vs the Eagles which made it 21-0. But after that the D held every single time. Pickens and CeeDee pose problems for the KC secondary. Dallas at home should be comfortable. I don’t blame you for staying away from this one or taking the KC on the ML.
Bengals @ Ravens: Ravens ML or Bengals +7
Baltimore has struggled against 3 bad QBs in a row (Gabriel, JJ, Taylor) Not very impressive wins. Joe Burrow may be back alongside Chase. The Bengals last 4 games have been decided by an average of 7.5 points and that’s with an aging Flacco and no Chase for one. So I expect them to keep it close.
Bears @ Eagles: Eagles ML
The Bears lack of depth on defense benefitted by average QB play and bad coaching vs the Steelers. However, verse Jalen, Saquon and the pass catching crew PHL has will do a better job. The Bears defense will need a minimum of 2 turnovers to keep it close. Philly has turned it over the least in the NFL so that will be tough sledding. Hoping for a Bears win, but this will be tough in PHL.
Niners @ Browns: Niners ML
Browns defense has done a decent job keeping games close. However, they will need to be perfect to do so in this game. The Niners offense is healthy and pose matchup concerns that the Browns last 5 opponents didn’t come close to and the Browns only won one of those, the Raiders. Sanders will face a Niners defense that just keeps making the plays regardless of who they put in. Some of that cockiness will be put to bed Sunday as he is not ready for the scheme Robert Saleh will throw at him. Maybe watch the under on this one as well.
Jags @ Titans: Jags -6.5
Jags have won 3 of their last 4 by spreading the ball around and playing team defense. Titans should just fold for the number 1 or 2 pick. Jags have a chance to stay in the hunt for the division and also solidify their Wild Card positioning. Two games vs Colts and a trip to Denver looming they can’t slip up and look past the Titans.
Texans @ Colts: Houston +4.5
Colts pass game has been exposed when Taylor is not gashing the defense. Both against Pitt and KC when Taylor was bottled up the defense got home vs Danny. Houston has one of the elite pass rushing duos in Anderson Jr. and Hunter. If Houston can keep JT from exploding, they are set to win a close game. However, I’ll take the points to feel better.
Saint’s @ Dolphins: Miami ML
Both these teams are unpredictable. With that said, go home team and the most explosive player which is A’Chane. That’s all I got for this garbage game.
Falcons @ Jets: Falcons ML
So two back up QBs yet again in a game this year. Seems like that’s a few games every week at this point. I don’t like a dome GA team going into the cold up north but the Jets don’t have much to be scared of. Give the ball to Bijan 25+ times Kirk, don’t be a hero.
Rams @ Panthers: Rams -10.5
Rams offense is humming and the best in the NFL. They are winning by an average of 14.5 in their 6 game win streak. That’s vs the likes of BMore, Jags, Niners, Seahawks and TB (playoff teams). Carolina has pulled some rabbits out the hat this season, but the Rams are focused and McVey doesn’t take the foot off the gas as you saw vs TB last week. Stafford will add another 3+ TDs to his league lead.
Cards @ Buccs: Buccs -2.5
Tamps is on a 3 game skid and the loss of Evans has shown it’s effect. However, with AZ/Saints/ATL/Carolina/MIA/Carolina to finish the season TB has a chance to win out. That has to be the mindset and I’m sure that is exactly what Baker is thinking. They will bounce back from the whooping the Rams gave them on Sunday night.
Vikings @ Seahawks: Seahawks ML
JJ as I expected has been dogshit. However, he may put together a half decent game……well probably not. I just don’t like the 10.5 even though when the Seahawks do win it’s by an average of more than 14. The Vikings defense started the year of strong, but the lack of defense is taking it’s toll. You can take the -10.5 if you’re feeling frisky but Sea is one of my locks this week as shown below for a 4-5 team ML.
Raiders @ Chargers: LAC -8.5
Just in time, what LAC needs. A nice little tune up kick some ass game. The Browns with SS just beat the Raiders. LAC should win this game walking away by at least 13+! LAC may get some help back in their RB room as well with Hampton. I do like the OVER sitting at 40.5 (LAC 31-13)
Bills @ Pitt: Bills -3.5
Tomlin has lost the locker room. Players don’t trust the OC or DC. Rodgers still nursing a wrist injury and Pitt can’t seem to get on track. Allen is the type of QB the Steelers struggle against and the Bills are finally healthier on defense. Bills won’t lose two in a row.
Broncos @ Commanders: Broncos ML
Regardless of how good the defense is and their record I just can’t trust the Denver offense. Even if it is against the Skins. Could be a trap game, maybe. Denver has two losses by a total of 4 points, they could easily be 11-0. Sean Peyton will take advantage of the injury riddled Skins. Also, Surtain is slated to be back in the secondary.
Giants @ Patriots: Patriots -7.5
Patriots last loss was 10 games ago vs Pitt where they turned the ball over 5x. The Winston theatrics have been fun to watch but Vrabel will be ready for the return of Dart. The Patriots will dominate this game on both sides of the ball. If the Giants were smart they would give Jaxon one more week off. Maye can pad his possible MVP stats vs the worst defense in the league statistically.
The Model’s Picks
Here are The Model Picks for this week of the 2025 NFL season. (Click here to learn more about how to read these picks.)
The Model is picking the favorite in every game this week. Many of the lines are close to the Draft Kings line. Not sure what this means.
Here are the over/under picks for the week. This is useful to get a better idea of what The Model is thinking when it generates the MOV, especially in the games where the OU diff is high.
That’s it. Good luck this week. If you are looking for the bets, I put them above the fold. Scroll up.