Week 11 Results
After going 3 for 3 with its underdog picks last week, The Model goes 0 for 3 this week. Eep. The Model performed terribly, contributing to our worst week yet with bets.
Our Bets
We didn’t win a single bet last weekend, or Thursday. So we were 0 for 5 on our bets, losing $500 plus an additional $25 on our long shot bets.
We did end up making a bet on the Cowboys to cover before Monday night’s game, but we didn’t mention that one in our picks last week. It was a close call, and I almost included it. The Model was predicting a closer game, but Jeremy was so confident and we could use the action after striking out Sunday, so I bet $100 on them to cover, and they did.
The Model Results
Last week was The Model’s best week of the year. This week is The Model’s worst week of the year.
The Model picked the winner 53% of the time, but that is below the 73% of winner picked right by the spread. The Model only won 20% on its picks vs the spread. Yikes.
We don’t usually dig in like this, but if you look at the games the model “lost” vs the spread, there are 4 games where The Model was predicting either the same spread or a spread within .5 points of the results. If we count these games as wins, then The Model was 53% “vs the spread”. So for example, the formula I’m using to calculate if The Model one treats predicting a GB win by 7 as a loss there for some reason. That’s obviously a bug that I need to work out. Hmm.
The Model kicked but in the Over/Under picks, winning 73% of the time.
New picks for Thursday and later this weekend coming soon. Jeremy and I, along with our Pop are going to be at the Steelers/Bears game in Chicago Sunday. I’ll try to get our bets and picks posted before I head out Friday. I’ll post some photos from the game.