Week 10 Results
The model was 3 for 3 picking underdogs last week (if you count the Eagles game where it really was predicting a tossup, but leaning Eagles). How did we do on our bets? How did the model do overall? Read on.
Our Bets
It was looking bleak early Sunday, but a couple comeback wins by the Bears and Texans gave a us a few wins to end up on the week.
We won $674 on $525 in bets, so about a unit and a half. (We’re back to $100 units from $150 since we’ve been soft the past few weeks.)
A win on that overtime bet would have been good. And you could make a case that Buffalo, Carolina, and Tampa Bay should have showed up better, which would have led to an awesome week.
The Model Results
The model has it’s best week yet I think compared to the Vegas odds. The model picked the winner 79% of the time and winning vs the spread 64% of time during a week when the Vegas line only picked the winner 57% of the time.
I also uploaded Over/Under picks. Here, the model went exactly 50/50 for the week.
I don’t know how much we can read into the O/U picks. The model seems either fairly dialed in or wildly off, with not much in between. That’s how it felt as a fan watching the games sometimes too. I like looking at the O/U picks to go along with the core margin picks to get an idea of what kind of game the model is expecting. If that is out of alignment with Jeremy’s thoughts. If the model is like team X will win a close low scoring game, and Jeremy thinks the game will be high scoring, it shows that the two are out of alignment even if they are picking the same team to win. Which, I think could be an indicator that we should stay away from that game… but actually could be an indicator that we should bet the game since there are effectively two different ways we could win the bet.
Hmm. This stuff is hard. It would be fun to run a kind of meta model on top of our picks to figure out optimal betting strategy using the same kind of machine learning we use to get the picks. Maybe in the future.
If anyone out there is interested in AI programming, the NFL, and sports betting, and wants to help out. Get in touch.
New picks coming soon. Good luck next week.