Week 7 Results
Wow. The favorites start winning again, and covering in 2/3 of matchups. The Model has a disastrous week, but somehow Jeremy and I end up even on our bets.
Full results and details below.
Here are The Model picks with the actual results.
Vegas picked the winner 80% of the time, closer to the historical average. The Model must have taken the bait of the past couple weeks, predicting closer games and so only picking the winner in 53% of games and winning vs the spread just 27% of the time.
I wish I had an easier way to check past results. I’m too lazy (or busy) to do that, but I’m pretty sure 27% is possibly the worse week ever. I picked a good time to start a site sharing these picks.
When The Model wins 80% of the time, I fantasize about quitting my job, betting bigger, and betting full time. When The Model gets crushed like this… I dunno.
But somehow, by combining the picks with Jeremy’s insights, we ended up winning our 2 3-win parlays. We made back $572 of the $680 we bet. We hit 6 of 7 on our big 7-game parlay. The TB moneyline there was maybe a bad pick in hindsight. We also lost our straight up bet on TB +6 points. Tough break.
Jeremy vs The Model
Last week, I italicized the picks where Jeremy and The Model disagreed on not just who covered, but who would win the game. Let’s dig through those and see who did better.
| Away | Home | Winner | The Model | Jeremy |
| LAR | JAC | LAR | 1 | 0 |
| NE | TEN | NE | 0 | 1 |
| PHL | MIN | PHL | 0 | 1 |
| MIA | CLE | CLE | 0 | 1 |
So maybe the lesson here is for Jeremy to start betting on the side without the model input. I’ll keep tracking these games we disagree on via the italics.
I hope y’all did better than us last week. More picks coming in soon for week 8.